The off-season preview edition for the Brewers and Twins
And some leftover goodies from Tom's (incredible) oral history of "Little Big League"
While Los Angeles and Tampa try to figure out which city gets to celebrate its second championship in one month, we’re well into offseason speculation time. In other words, the time where Rich People Conversations thrive. We’re already almost a month ahead of Atlanta and Houston in our stages of grief and well on our way to bargaining, though I suspect that brutal fourth stage of depression is right around the corner.
As part of our bargaining, we’re talking about literal bargaining in this week’s edition. Arbitration, free agents, club options and more. Time to dig in.
Let’s converse.
Twins off-season preview
~Jake
Minnesota has some serious decisions to make this offseason. Unlike last year, where those decisions are all about addition, there’s likely going to be some notable subtractions this year. Will there be additions, too? Maybe. But today, we look at the current team and some of the choices the Twins have to make with that current roster.
Arbitration
Mitch Garver: The 2020 season was a rough one for Garv Sauce, who managed to play just 23 games while battling a right intercostal strain all year, whatever that is. When he was playing, he struggled mightily hitting just .167 while striking out in 45.7% of his plate appearances. Throw in the emergence of Ryan Jeffers and that puts the 2019 breakout star up in the air for 2021. His contract was just $620K this year, so he’s surely due something of a raise, but as just a first-year arbitration player, he’s unlikely to see anything incredibly substantial.
Byron Buxton: The star centerfielder will enter his third year of arbitration this offseason, this after making $3.075 million in 2020. Just shy of his 27th birthday, the Twins are likely going to relish in another relatively cheap year of all star-level play. It doesn’t feel right at all, but you can understand the logic. Buxton is someone who may not fare all that well in arbitration, too. He’s often injured and much of his value comes from his defense and baserunning. It’s what we love about him, but it’s not often what gets a man paid in arbitration. His power numbers ought to help him but a bizarre drop in walk rate will surely be a concern heading into next year.
Jose Berrios: Much like Buxton, Berrios is surely someone the Twins are hoping to extend down the line, but are letting the arbitration game play its course. As is the case almost every year with Berrios, we got the good-but-not-great version of the young righty in 2020. He finished with a 4.00 ERA and 4.06 FIP, both of which are notable spikes from his past few seasons. The struggles can pretty closely be linked to his lack of control as he bumped up his walk rate to 3.71 walks per nine, the third-highest total in baseball this year (it was 2.29 in 2019). (Side note: First and second place in walk rate this year? Old Friends Martin Perez and Kyle Gibson.) After a slow start, Berrios really settled in nicely in September (minus his last start of the season against Cincinnati) and we got Ace Berrios for a handful of starts. He’s going to continue to be your favorite baseball writer’s breakout pick, and for 10-12 starts a year, it’ll be justified. His flashes of excellence make any contract difficult and arbitration is no different.
Eddie Rosario: As MLB.com Twins reporter Do-Hyung Park recently talked about in his mailbag column, Eddie Rosario may not be long for a Twins uniform. The veteran left fielder is a fan favorite who may very well be the face of the Twins, but his profile doesn’t totally match his output. He had a 110 wRC+ in 2020, just a smidge higher than his career 106 mark, and has inconsistent defense that trends toward poor. He’s a highlight reel, whether for the Twins or for the other team, and he’s in his last year or arbitration eligibility. With just one year of team control left and a slew of outfield prospects banging on the door (not to mention Jake Cave or LaMonte Wade Jr.), he may be out of a gig in Minnesota. A trade would be ideal for Minnesota, but as Park suggested, the lack of team control (and uncertain wage for 2021), Rosie may be a non-tender candidate.
Taylor Rogers: Rogers picked a bad time to not be good. He wasn’t ever going to make tons of money, especially with the recent precedent of Josh Hader’s arbitration battle in Milwaukee, where he got just $4.1 million. Rogers and the Twins avoided arbitration last year, settling on a $4.45 million total--yes, Taylor Rogers made more than Josh Hader lol--but this year is a very different year. The lefty was banged around a bit, touched up for a 4.05 ERA while seeing his strikeout rate drop by almost a whole strikeout per nine. There’s reason to be optimistic, though: despite the high ERA, he had a tide 2.84 FIP and batters sported an unsustainable .400 BABIP against him. That’s what happens in just 20 innings, I suppose.
Tyler Duffey: I don’t know what Duffey is going to get in arbitration, but he deserves it. Doof (who is somehow going to be 30 next season?!) looked at his awesome 2019 season and actually got better. He posted career bests in ERA (1.88) and FIP (2.57) despite seeing a dip in his K/9 (12.80 in 2019, 11.63 in 2020). It didn’t matter, though. He officially made the switch from a fastball-first pitcher to a curveball-first pitcher in 2020 and, um, that breaking ball is basically unhittable, y’all.
Caleb Thielbar: Wow, Caleb Thielbar was fun, huh? He was shockingly good for a 33-year-old who last pitched in the bigs back in 2015. Scratch that, he was just shockingly good, period. He started out as a mop-up type guy but proved he had the gumption--if not the stuff, necessarily--for some higher leverage innings. He struck out 9.90 batters per nine, which is astonishing given he throws a four-seamer more than 50 percent of the time at just 89 miles per hour. He’s another guy who may not keep a spot on the 40-man simply because of his age, but he can clearly hang.
Matt Wisler: SIGN HIM AND LET HIM THROW ALL THE SLIDERS. Wisler was a revelation, striking out 32.7 percent of batters and keeping a 1.07 ERA. He made just $725K this year--he’s due for a raise. Just take a look at this graphic from Baseball Savant:
Yep, we’ll keep that.
P.S. Don’t worry about those fastball numbers. When you throw sliders 83.4% of the time (!), fastball numbers don’t matter.
Unrestricted free agents
Nelson Cruz: Oh boy, this is tough. As previously reported, both sides appear interested in reuniting if the numbers match up. What are those numbers going to be, though? There’s no doubt Nelly was underpaid the past couple years with Minnesota, making just $26 million so far as a Twin, but he’s unlikely to go make a big contract anywhere now that he’s north of 40. He was excellent yet again, leading the team in nearly all offensive categories while essentially mirroring his 2019 season. A similar deal to the one he signed with Minnesota two years ago makes sense to me. He’s put up career years but is older, too. Minnesota has other options for a DH, especially given their logjam of corner outfielders/first basemen, so they could move on from Nelly. He’s a wonderful clubhouse presence, though, and still an elite hitter. For one or two years, no price is too high.
Alex Avila: Fifteen years from now, when Curt, Tom and I are instant messaging each other via computer chips in our brains, we’re going to have a thread of “Hey, do you remember when Alex Avila was a Twin?” There’s almost no chance the veteran backstop is back with MInnesota next year. He struggled at the plate and, with the emergence of Ryan Jeffers, Avila becomes redundant.
Tyler Clippard: Clippard, like Trevor May and Sergio Romo, was a strong go-to guy out of the bullpen for Minnesota. Romo and Clippard don’t do anything spectacularly well and wouldn’t be great bullpen aces, but they’re excellent as the No. 4 or 5 guy out of the pen. They raise the floor of the pitching staff and that’s truly invaluable. He made just $2.75 million in 2020 and a similar contract, perhaps for two years, would make sense. He also could be a casualty of a 40-man roster crunch, as guys like Lewis Thorpe, Jhoan Duran, Dakota Chalmers, Jordan Balazovic, and Edward Colina vie for spots.
Trevor May: See Clippard, Tyler. Jokes aside, May is a strong reliever who could probably close for a bad team (just a friendly reminder that Brandon Kintzler was a closer for Miami this year) and may want to leave to do that. If he stays in Minnesota, though, he can continue to be a high leverage weapon and strikeout machine. He struck out 14.66 per nine this year, good for sixth-best among relievers, just behind Josh Hader (14.68). (Side note: Devin Williams and Freddy Peralta finished second and fourth in this metric). May is a guy who got dinged by a small sample year and may look for a short contract to improve his numbers and try again in a year.
Rich Hill: Mr. D. Mountain signed a cheap one year deal in the offseason knowing he’d miss a good chunk of any season due to injury and it was a valuable one for the Twins. He proved he still has it at 40 years old, posting a 3.034 ERA in eight starts. I imagine he’ll look for a two-year deal wherever he can get one, and the Twins should consider it, despite his age. His presence blocked the way for Devin Smeltzer starts and may get in the way of guys like Thorpe, but he can still sling it, even if his innings total will stay low.
Jake Odorizzi: 2020 has been a bad year for literally billions of people, but from a baseball sense only, few had it worse than Odorizzi this year. He re-joined the Twins by accepting a qualifying offer, turning away the potential of signing a longer-term contract and betting on himself to continue a strong stretch of starts. Instead, a pandemic hit and he battled injuries all year. He missed the start of the season with an intercostal injury (still don’t know what that is), pitched three times, took a liner straight to his person, missed a month, pitched 3.2 innings and developed a season-ending blister on his finger. All told, he threw 13.2 innings across four games in a prove-it season. Not ideal. He’ll likely sign a Rich Hill-like deal this offseason and hope for better success this offseason.
Ehire Adrianza: What happens to Ehire Adrianza ultimately comes down to how the Twins feel about Nick Gordon or a minor league free agent back-up. The Twins have options for utility men, even if/when Adrianza and Marwin Gonzalez leave the organization. Travis Blankenhorn, who we saw very briefly this season, is one of those guys and so is Willians Astudillo, but neither of those two play shortstop. Backup shortstop is the largest gap on this Twins roster if Adrianza leaves. Adrianza, notably, was not good in 2020 and cannot expect much of anything this offseason, but he could help the Twins as Polanco’s backup.
Marwin Gonzalez: Marwin filled in for Josh Donaldson much of the year and spelled Luis Arraez as the second baseman battled injury, too, but it’s unlikely the Twins will saddle up with the utility man once again. He didn’t hit well in 2020 and was ultimately pretty underwhelming as a Twin. His ability to play multiple positions is valuable but, again, his inability to play shortstop makes him just a more expensive version of Astudillo. And with the Twins’ stockpile of outfielders, Gonzalez would be confined to backing up second or third as a below-average hitter. Quite simply, there are cheaper options.
Club Options
Sergio Romo ($5 million): The bearded vet was solid in 2020 and probably worth the $5 million option. Similar to Clippard, he raises the bullpen’s floor, but may ultimately be expendable with Jorge Alcala and others expected to throw more innings next year.
Rule 5 protection options
My picks: Jordan Balazovic, Benjamin Rortvedt (Sconnie!), Jose Miranda, Akil Badoo
Speculated 40-man losses (5; maybe 11)
Free agents: Ehire Adrianza, Alex Avila, Marwin Gonzalez; maybe Rich Hill, Jake Odorizzi, Nelson Cruz, Trevor May, Tyler Clippard
Removed from 40-man: Caleb Thielbar, Eddie Rosario; maybe Jake Cave
Brewers off-season preview
~Curt
Arbitrations
Omar Narvaez: He was a complete blank at the plate this year, batting .176/.294/.269 with a 59 wRC+. Narvaez’s lack of power was astounding and he struck out more than 30% of the time, making his 12.7 BB% his only saving grace. The Brewers are in a precarious situation at catcher, with Manny Pina and Jacob Nottingham playing far better in 2020 and out of minor league options going forward. Narvaez made $2.73 million last year and has two years of club control remaining. General manager David Stearns made a concerted effort to pick up Narvaez in a trade last year as Yasmani Grandal’s replacement, which would incline one to think that would keep him around for at least another year, but we’ve seen that Stearns does not often fall into the sunk cost fallacy. Still, the Brewers are looking at one down year in what was a shortened, weird season with a non-detrimental $3.5 million (estimated) price tag and options remaining. I think they tender Narvaez, although going with a Nottingham/Pina catcher group wouldn’t be a shock.
Corey Knebel: Knebel is entering the last year of team control with the Brewers. He made $5.1 million in 2020 and, coming off Tommy John surgery, showed flashes of his former self at times but for the most part struggled with velocity and command. With the Brewers unlikely to commit to major salary moves coming off a year with no revenue from fans coming through the gates (like it/agree with it or not, this is almost certainly what’s going to happen) it’s tough to see them committing to that type of salary for Knebel.
Manny Pina: The catcher has one year remaining of team control. He got off to a strong start before a knee injury ended his season and is probably the most dependable option, both defensively and with the bat, behind the plate going forward. That said, the upside is limited at age 33 and with a career 90 wRC+. With a roster crunch at the position and only one year of control left, I could see the Brewers moving on from Pina in some capacity this winter in what would certainly be a tough call.
Orlando Arcia: Arcia may have just changed the entire perception around both himself as a player and his future in Milwaukee. After being a non-tender candidate coming into the year, he hit .260/.317/.416 and played plus defense at shortstop. A $2.2 million player in 2020, he could be in for a sizable raise but after Luis Urias didn’t do a whole lot to solidify the shortstop position going forward, it’s not hard to see the Brewers tendering Arcia if they don’t find a trade partner.
Alex Claudio: Claudio was signed to a $1.8 million deal after being non-tendered last off-season. After recording ERAs of 4.06 and 4.26 in his two years in Milwaukee, Claudio is a safe-but-unexciting arm to have in the bullpen, but his value is diminished by the three-batter minimum and his lack of strikeout stuff. I would lean toward a second straight non-tender.
Brandon Woodruff: A “super two” candidate, Woodruff has been nothing short of excellent for the Brewers. It’s not hard to see him fall in line around the 2020 Josh Hader super two deal of $4.1 million, though if I had to guess I would presume it won’t be quite as high. Perhaps there are some contract extension talks going on, as well.
Ryon Healy: Of course a team would tender a contract to their cleanup hitter in the playoffs! Right? …right? ………...guys? It’s possible to see the Brewers, who aren’t exactly brimming with corner infield prospects, bring Healy back on a cheap deal as a depth piece with minor league options. I would suspect the Brewers don’t tender him, but wouldn’t be at all surprised if they do.
Josh Hader: Let the speculation begin! Hader wasn’t quite all-caps JOSH HADER in 2020, but there’s no doubt that he is still among the very best relievers in the game thanks to his 2.54 ERA and 15.29 K/9 over his four seasons. The price tag will be hefty in the second of a possible four arbitration years. With that salary raise and volatility that comes with the reliever position, it’s very possible that the Brewers could trade Hader away this winter. If the return isn’t convincing, though, they will have no problem bringing him back on a $6-7 million deal.
Jace Peterson: One of my favorite stats on the 2020 Brewers was Peterson’s bonkers 24.6 BB% in 61 plate appearances. He seemed to be a classic Counsell Favorite down the stretch and could come back as a utility player on a cheap deal. I don’t know why but I just have this gut feeling he is back in 2021.
Dan Vogelbach: A buy-low waiver claim, Vogelbach rode a heater in September and posted a .328/.418/.569 slash line, albeit with a .417 BABIP. His return may depend on whether or not the DH stays in the National League (at this point I would guess it does). If it sticks around, this is a no-doubter for the Brewers.
Club options:
Ben Gamel ($2.6 million): With a career 95 wRC+, Gamel provides a steady presence as a fourth outfielder. But is he enough of an upgrade over the cheaper cast of Tyrone Taylor/Billy McKinney/Mark Mathias/Jace Peterson that could also play the role of reserve outfielder? That’s the question the Brewers are tasked with.
Jedd Gyorko ($4.5 million; $1 million buyout): With what essentially comes out to a $3.5 million option thanks to the buyout, it’s hard not to see the Brewers keep Gyorko around another year. He can play both corner infield spots and was the lone short-term buy-low deal that worked for Milwaukee. With so many holes to fill offensively, the Brewers will likely welcome Gyorko back.
Ryan Braun ($15 million; $4 million buyout): I’m not crying. You’re crying. The Brewers and Braun could figure out a one-year deal, but they certainly won’t execute the $15 million option. Still, it sure seemed like Braun was calling it a career toward the end of the season. I’m not ready for this.
Eric Sogard ($4.5 million, $550k buyout): A .560 OPS for Sogard in 2020 pretty much spelled the end of his second tenure in Milwaukee.
Rule 5 protection options
My picks: Mario Feliciano, Zack Brown, Dylan File (I’ve seen some conflicting reports on if he needs to be protected this year or next)
Possibly: Alec Bettinger, Bowden Francis
40-man losses (7)
Free agent: Brett Anderson
Removed from 40-man: I’ll throw an estimate of 6 players removed from the 40-man either by declined club options or non-tendered/DFA.
That leaves five open 40-man spots. The next-likely DFA candidates, in order of likelihood: David Freitas, Phil Bickford, Bobby Wahl, Mark Mathias.
Little Big League leftovers
~ Tom
In case you somehow missed my exhausting self-promotion and constant spamming on social media (@tomdierberger, that’s @tomdierberger on Twitter), I wrote the first-ever complete oral history of the 1994 Castle Rock Entertainment film “Little Big League.”
I spoke with 13 people from the movie -- including lead actors Timothy Busfield (Lou Collins), Luke Edwards (Billy Heywood) and screenplay writer Adam Scheinman -- and logged never-told-before stories of Ken Griffey Jr. hitting bombs with a broken bat at the Metrodome, Tim Busfield trying to hit off Randy Johnson and tomfoolery at the Loon Cafe.
You can find that right here.
Believe it or not, I couldn’t fit all of the great anecdotes from on and off the set into an 11,000-word story. So here we go. Like a Wednesday night in the Dierberger household back in 2004, here are the leftovers -- exclusive to our Rich People Conversations subscribers.
Scheinman, a fellow baseball nut, threw in multiple Washington Senators references into the movie out of respect for the original team that made up the first 59 years of the Twins’ franchise. “Useful information?,” he said via text. “Absolutely. It’s something I haven’t told anyone else, since, honestly, who would care?”
WE CARE, ADAM. WE LOVE THIS STUFF.
-- It’s why Billy’s grandfather, Thomas Heywood (Jason Robards), talks about missing out on watching Walter Johnson pitch when he was a kid. Johnson, of course, spent all 21 seasons of his Hall of Fame career with the Senators.
-- The general manager of the Twins was named Arthur Goslin, a nod to Hall of Fame outfielder Goose Goslin, who played 12 seasons with the Senators.
-- The “ball off the pebble” play -- you know, the crushing error by third baseman Troy Startoni (Larry Hilbert) that gave Seattle a one-run lead in the 12th inning of the one-game playoff -- was a reference to the ground ball in Game 7 of the 1924 World Series that gave the Senators/Twins franchise its first championship.
Other notes and stories ...
-- The cast of “Little Big League” was in attendance at the Metrodome on Sept. 16, 1993 -- the night Dave Winfield collected his 3,000th career hit.
-- John Minch (Mark Hodges) on shooting his shirtless scene: “Usually when we were done [filming for the day], I’d go back and hit the gym and hit the tanning salon because I knew my big shot in the locker room with my shirt off was coming up. I wanted to be in shape and look good. The day finally comes and the camera guy goes, ‘What the hell did you do?’ I go, ‘What do you mean?’ He goes, ‘You’re way darker than you have been in the last few shots.’ I said, ‘Well ... I’ve just been tanning once in a while.’ So he had to adjust the camera a bit to light me up because I had a pretty good tan going.”
-- Luke Edwards (Billy Heywood) on the stick ball scene: “I couldn’t get a hit. I couldn’t get a hit! It took so long, and it was so embarrassing. Because time is money when you’re making a movie, man. If you can’t deliver – I’m used to being able to nail it. It’s a tiny, tiny bat. As I said before, I’m just terrible at baseball to begin with. So, it took a really long time. It gets a little uncomfortable at a certain moment, where they’re going like, ‘Alright, this isn’t happening. What do we do?’ I finally got a hit. If you watch the movie, and you watch that frame where I finally get a hit, and you look at the reaction, I’m so surprised. Because it took so long but I finally got one. I was kind of like, ‘Oh, I did it! And then it’s like, ‘Oh, you’ve got to run!’”
-- Scheinman on where the idea of Night Nurses From Jersey originated: “It came from my brain. We’re from New Jersey [Adam and his brother, director Andrew Scheinman], so I just said what sounds like a stupid, soft porn movie? Night Nurses From Jersey. ‘They’re off the turnpike,’ because the New Jersey turnpike – the exit defines where you live. It defines if you’re a Mets fan or a Phillies fan. ‘They’re off the turnpike and on duty for love.’ So that’s it. One of the patients was one of my brother’s friends, Charles Owens, who was a great tennis player. He didn’t have a line, but he would get in a bunch of my brother’s movies. [The nurses] were actresses who came in and auditioned for the role. My brother [Andrew] did the doctor’s voice. So he just made up stuff that you hear in the background.”