Goodbye, Miller Park. Kinda.
The off-season rolls on with Luis Urias talk, free agent musings and favorite memories from what is now American Family Field.
Happy Wednesday, everybody.
2021 so far is off to a smashing start unless you are Bean Man or the New York Giants or a Major League Baseball free agent. (Update: oh my goodness did this age poorly.)
While we continue to wait and see if anyone in the NL Central can top the Luke Maile signing, we’ll keep the off-season #content rolling as best as we can. This week, that includes some Luis Urias discourse, dreaming on players the Twins probably will never come close to signing and discussing favorite Miller Park memories, which is kinda weird because nothing about the stadium is changing except for a sponsorship.
Let’s converse.
Luis Urias, enigma
~Curt
No player epitomizes the 2020 Major League Baseball season better than Luis Urias.
Technically, it happened. There were some good moments, some rough patches and lots that you just don’t remember taking place; I could recall practically every game from the 2019 regular season but can’t recall a single thing from, like, half of the 2020 campaign. In the end, you don’t want to read too much into anything that happened.
This is Luis Urias’ most recent season, as well.
Technically, Urias hit .239/.308/.294, good for a 66 wRC+. He was worth 0.0 wins per Fangraphs and 0.1 according to Baseball Reference. He walked in 8.3% of plate appearances and struck out in 26.7%. There were no home runs in 120 trips to the dish.
Again, this all happened. Or so I am told. You could also convince me that none of it ever took place. For the sake of this post, we will take it as fact.
Now that we have established what Urias—theoretically—did in his first season with the Brewers, let’s try to dig in a little more to see what Milwaukee has in their 23 year-old infielder.
The good
We at Rich People Conversations are optimistic people, except for when it’s late in the third quarter and the Packers defense is on the field with a one-score lead. Or if thinking about Mike Budenholzer making any adjustments in a playoff series. So let’s start with the positive. Or if Tom is pondering anything about Minnesota sports. On second thought,,,
Low chase rate and solid contact
One of the things we’ll get to in the negatives section is Urias’ suboptimal 26.7 strikeout rate. He has struck out at a much higher clip than he showcased in his early years as a prospect, but some of Urias’ underlying numbers suggest he could improve in that area.
Urias had a swinging strike rate of just 7.4% last year and 8.6% for his career, both decently below the 2020 league average of 11.3%. Urias is generally also a fairly selective hitter, finishing in the 16th percentile for swing percentage. He also only swung at 28% of first-pitch fastballs, which can often be the best pitch a hitter sees in an at-bat.There’s room for him to combine his bat-to-ball skills with greater aggression.
Good defense
Any time you can be more than 30 percent worse than league average at the plate and still grade out as a replacement-level player, you’re doing something right. And that something is almost certainly defense.
Urias came to Milwaukee primarily as a middle infielder, playing all but two of his big league innings in 2018 and ‘19 at second base and shortstop. A confluence of events—missing the start of the season due to testing positive for COVID, Orlando Arcia playing some of the best ball of his career and Eric Sogard being, um, bad—led to Urias spending most of his time at third base. He graded out positively there by just about any way you spin it.
Urias was worth two defensive runs saved, plus-two runs per the Fielding Bible and two outs above average by Statcast. The eye test matched these numbers, too, and it was all done heavily at a position Urias was adjusting to.
Age and adjustment
I feel like this was hammered home maybe even too much during the season as Brewers Twitter engaged in Urias discourse, but the fact of the matter is that he didn’t turn 23 until June. Development isn’t linear. Most 23-year-olds aren’t big leaguers with 422 career plate appearances in the majors.
Urias also has a track record of adapting to higher levels as time progresses. We’ll see if that carries over with the Brewers.
Early-season at-bats
In a weird season like this last one was, there’s a certain element to it of not knowing exactly what (and what not) to read into.
While the end results for Urias weren’t what the Brewers could have wanted at the dish, he showed flashes of the tantalizing offensive profile that led the team to trade for him. A pair of games at Wrigley in the early portion of the season saw him reach base seven times, including smacking a triple, in nine plate appearances.
As Bill Schroeder would say, that’s a good piece of hitting.
The bad
High strikeout rate
Urias’ running strikeout rates are a bit confounding.
It’s normal for a player to see his strikeouts rise as he gets promoted and the pitching gets better. But going from a 6.8% K% in 531 High-A plate appearances in 2016 to a 20.5% mark in Triple-A just two years later is a bit unusual. Urias’ big league whiffs are more in line with what he showed in Triple-A, where he tapped into more power in lieu of striking out more.
The issue at the major league level, though, has been that the strikeouts have remained while the power has been zapped. It’s not impossible to be a good hitter in today’s league while striking out as much as Urias has, but you’re going to need to buoy that with something of a batted ball profile that he has not yet showcased. And somehow this has turned into a “Luis Urias’ lack of power is an issue” discussion.
Luis Urias’ lack of power is an issue
See above sentence.
He struggles with off-speed
Urias is a career .147 hitter with a .206 slugging percentage against changeups; .174 and .244 against sliders; .233 and .326 against curveballs. I’m not sure what the data would say about how much or how well young hitters can adapt to breaking pitches as they age, although there has almost certainly research that has already been done on this. Reaction time typically decreases around age 24, which isn’t favorable for Urias in this instance, but the good news for him here is that hitting is about far more than reaction.
So what’s our takeaway?
In Urias’ case, it’s probably better to not read too much into the 2020 season. That doesn’t mean there aren’t certain aspects of it that are telling. His contact skills are very much solid and he flashed the ability to square the ball up at times, albeit not elevated. He could afford to be more aggressive at the plate as a rare instance in which attacking more could actually lead to a strikeout decline. His defense provides a decent floor no matter the infield position, but as we saw, the Brewers desperately need offense and so the development of his bat is crucial in 2021.
Dipping into the power production Urias showed at Triple-A and some additional batted ball luck—both of which Steamer bakes into its optimistic projection of him—and this next season could be a good one for the young infielder. Milwaukee probably shouldn’t bank on that, though, and look to add depth around Urias.
Dreaming on some stars
~Tom
Twins fans all remember the shock and euphoria we felt when the club dished out a franchise-record deal to Josh Donaldson last offseason. Donaldson, a legitimate MLB star, inked his name to a four-year deal worth $92 million. So, is there another blockbuster option available in free agency or via trade? Let’s discuss.
RHP Liam Hendriks
Hendriks is one of the most interesting baseball players of the last decade. He struggled as a starting pitcher in Minnesota from 2011-13 and bounced around the big leagues after being cut by the Twins. In 2015, Hendriks landed in Toronto’s bullpen. And suddenly, he started to throw harder. And better. In the last five seasons, he’s gone from Rick Anderson afterthought to one of the most feared closers in baseball. Signing Hendriks to a free-agent deal, which would probably end up being for three years and at least $12 million per year, would propel the Twins’ bullpen from good to great. Tyler Duffey into Taylor Rogers into Hendriks? Start the buses!
SS Javier Baez
Wait, you mean that Javier Baez? El Mago? The guy who makes no-look flips to second base and controls his body on slides into third base like he’s on the moon? Yep, that guy. The Chicago Cubs are clearly in tank mode, having sent ace pitcher Yu Darvish to San Diego for a box of 2002 Topps baseball cards. All signs point to the Cubs eventually letting their 2016 championship core walk away, which includes Baez, an unrestricted free agent after the 2021 campaign. That means the Twins could get the two-time All-Star for relatively cheap. Baez is a shortstop by trade, but he’s also played 285 games at second base and 104 contests at third base. What does that mean? There will be room for all of the Twins’ infield bats even if Baez comes to town.
RHP Trevor Bauer
I’m writing this blurb with one eye open and the other eye wincing in pain. Bauer is … a bit obnoxious. From his YouTube channel to Twitter rants tochucking baseballs into the center field seats, it’s clear Bauer loves himself a little bit of Trevor Bauer. While he might not be a perfect fit in the Twins clubhouse, he’d be a big boost to the rotation. Bauer is the reigning NL Cy Young winner, posting a 1.73 ERA, 0.795 WHIP and 12.3 K/9 in 11 starts for Cincinnati. I’m not ready to give Bauer a Joe Mauer-esque contract, but an expensive one-year deal? Sure! I’ll just mute him on Twitter and enjoy him on the mound …
American Family Field Funhouse of Dream
~Curt
Miller Park is no more.
Well, okay, that’s not actually all true. Miller Park, as in the large, domed structure that sits just south of I-94, is still there. Miller Park, as in the name of said clam-resembling building, is gone.
It’s American Family Field now, which I’m sure you know by this point thanks to the bottomless outrage of Brewers fans who will not accept any other corporate overlords paying for stadium naming rights beside Molson-Coors. (All things considered, though, Miller Park was a top-five ballpark name simply based on the beer connection; it’d be like if the White Sox played at Maytag Field or Hanes Stadium.)
((A couple of random, but pressing name change-related questions. Is this going to make calling them Badger Mutual Insurance Runs awkward? Because I don’t like conflict. What are we going to do with the street called Miller Park Way? At what point are we going to side-eye all the people who still call it Miller Park? Like, what’s the grace period where we go from acknowledging that it’s sorta strange but acceptable given the attachment harvested over the last 20 seasons to actively asking why a person is still clinging to the memories of a large sign with a beer company’s name on it?))
Anywho, this name change gave me an excuse to write about my favorite memories at Miller Park, aka let’s talk about some fun and dumb things that took place at a baseball stadium I attend often.
2018 NLDS Game Two
As far as playoff games go, this one wasn’t all too riveting. Milwaukee beat Colorado, 4-0. Big Game Pitcher Jhoulys Chacin didn’t have his best stuff but still worked five scoreless, Hernan Perez (!!) hit an RBI double, Joakim Soria and Josh Hader pulled a Houdini to escape a jam in the eighth and minutes later Erik Kratz became a postseason hero with a broken bat two-run single to pad the lead.
What I’ll always remember most is filing a story for the Journal Sentinel that ran in the Sunday paper feature spot on A1 about Craig Counsell’s hometown roots from my standing room ticket spot, hunched over my laptop as it rested on the snack bar meant to hold nachos, not serve as a work desk for a 6-foot-5 man. I missed most of what happened in the first couple of innings while frantically exchanging emails with an editor who had me rewriting it on the fly. All I needed to do after that was complain about pace of play and I woulda been a Real Ballwriter.
The Ryan Braun walk-off slam
The Sausage Whacker game
Pittsburgh vs. Milwaukee on July 9, 2003 was a) the game where I learned how to keep score, b) won on a walk-off by Wes Helms and c) The Sausage Whacker Game.
I found an ESPN news story from the incident and wow this was taken super seriously??!?! Simon got arrested and given a fine, a deputy district attorney reviewed the tape to decide whether to file charges and Rick Schlesinger called it "one of the most outrageous things I've ever seen inside a ballpark or outside a ballpark.”
Wisconsin, everybody!
The Randy Johnson Dinger Game
One of my favorite obscure baseball facts is that Randy Johnson became the oldest player to hit his first career ding dong when he homered off Doug Davis at the ripe age of 40 in 2003. When digging through my old stuff after moving into the house, I found the scorecard from this game tucked into a folder. The 2003 Brewers were a drug, man.
The Chase Anderson Near No-No
I was fortunate enough to cover the Brewers daily from May until the end of the season as an intern for MLB.com in 2016. That squad was both the best and worst team to cover as a burgeoning sports writer.
It was the best because the stakes were incredibly low covering a young team just beginning a rebuild. It was the worst because the stakes were incredibly low covering a young team just beginning a rebuild.
My tenure at the Dot Com, though, started with a bang. I had just finished my junior year of college—I’m pretty sure I took my last exam the morning of my first day on the job—and the Cubs were in town for a three-game set. It was going to be a light day for me in terms of responsibilities. All I really had to do was make sure McCalvy was in my sights the whole time, not do anything too stupid, learn some of the ropes and eat far too much froyo.
Chase Anderson was pitching that day. He was not off to a great start in 2016. The Cubs, a developing behemoth, were.
“Do you think Chase Anderson is in the dugout hall bathroom puking his dinner up or the clubhouse bathroom?” I recall someone asking in the media dining room.
Then Anderson didn’t give up a hit. Through the first seven innings.
Our editor for the night had to quickly devise no-hitter coverage plans for what was potentially going to be the Crew’s first no-no in 30 years. The game story for a Chase Anderson no-hitter had suddenly fallen in my lap. Froyo-and-Chill Curt had quickly morphed into Mom Please Come Pick Me Up Now Curt.
Unfortunately for the Brewers (and fortunately for my insides), Ben Zobrist led off the eighth with a double for the Cubs.
Not much else happened that year on the field for the Brewers, but I’ll never forget that time Chase Anderson almost threw a no-hitter.
The Quinton McCracken Game
You probably don’t remember this one. It’s OK, I barely even do. This is because I cannot recall a single thing about the game itself. But what I can tell you is I recall the exact moment when starting lineups were being announced and I fell in love. I heard what would become my favorite baseball player name ever: Quinton McCracken.
CC goes yard
I believe I only saw one start by Carsten Charles Sabathia in 2008. It was a Sunday against the Reds, the final day before the All-Star break if I recall. He hit a bomb. It was awesome.
No, I don’t know why this is the only clip of this homer that exists online.
Oh, and the Brewers later won on a walk-off sac fly by Craig Counsell.
Thank you, Christian Yelich
As a kid, my goal was always to catch a foul ball or, better yet, pull off the holy grail and snag a dinger. During batting practice once, a ball smacked into my hands as I reached over the railing in the left-field bleachers. It did not remain in said hands. But in 2019, in a game against the Cardinals, Christian Yelich sent a dingeroo deep into the right-center bleachers, a few rows over my head. It caromed off a seat and into the air and into my hands. It remained in said hands this time.
Now, I have always judged adults who catch homers or foul balls and then hoist it in the air and pocket it while there are six kids under the age of 10 right next to them. With homer ball, by the reigning MVP nonetheless, in hand, I quickly came to regret all of this type of judgement I had ever passed. I did a scan of my immediate surroundings, hoping that God in his divinity had placed precisely zero children in the section. It was a Tuesday night game in April. There were no kids. Thank you, God. Thank you, Christian Yelich.