Jackie Bradley Jr. arrives, dingers are hit and position battles take place.
The Brewers have approved fans and outlawed tailgating. But how will they be able to stop The Walking Tailgate?
Happy Tuesday, fellow rich people.
I was watching some spring training baseball early last week. Wander Franco, the top prospect in baseball, came up to the plate for Tampa Bay in a game against the Pirates. It was the first time I had watched him play live in a game. On the first pitch of his first at-bat, he launched a fastball some 415 feet to right.
I was in love.
I rarely do this, but I had the urge to go buy a Wander Franco shirsey or jersey right then and there. So I sauntered my virtual self on over to various officially MLB-licensed merchandise sites to see what my options were. This is the most hyped prospect in baseball since, like, Bryce Harper and he’s about to make his debut soon! Surely I can purchase a baby blue shirt with his name and number on the back!
There was just one problem: this is Major League Baseball we’re talking about, so of course they had no Wander Franco merchandise available.
I was a bit surprised, although I really shouldn’t have been. The kid hasn’t made his big league debut yet, so why would they have the foresight to want to market a guy who has an 80-grade hit tool? Gotta keep him down in the minors for a month or two and then argue it wasn’t service time manipulation but he very conveniently just “wasn’t ready” for the majors. And if you’re a baseball fan who wants to give the league your money, well too bad; MLB would rather stick to its guns about being anti-labor than promote its Super Mega Fun Young Guys.
I know it’s not an apples-to-apples comparison, but could you imagine NBA stores just not selling Zion Williamson jerseys the month before his rookie season began?
That’s fine, though. I’ll just pivot to dropping $439.99 on a jersey of a player who doesn’t even play for the Brewers anymore instead.
Let’s converse.
It took us one week to see why the Brewers signed JBJ
~Curt
The Brewers have too many players that play the same position, but the good news is we’ve been here before.
First, there were Too Many Outfielders. That was in the offseason prior to the 2018 campaign when the Brewers added Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain to the mix that already included Ryan Braun, Domingo Santana and Keon Broxton. Later that year, it was Too Many Infielders with Mike Moustakas, Jonathan Schoop and Travis Shaw all sharing only two starting spots.
Brewers president David Stearns went back to the well with the signing of Jackie Bradley Jr. last week, which was made official Monday. The move crowds an already-not-socially-distanced outfield picture that includes Yelich, Cain and Avisail Garcia as starting-caliber outfielders.
Cain is a Gold Glove-caliber center fielder. As is Bradley. Yelich obviously will play just about every day because of his bat. And Garcia is making $10 million this year. But there are only three spots in the outfield.
What we didn’t see as much of this time around, though, was the mass confusion and freak out over how the Brewers would make it all work. Simply put, they will make it work.
Ironically enough, on the day Milwaukee announced the deal, a perfect example was provided of why they made the move.
Lorenzo Cain, it was announced, had been totally shut down with a quad injury that was first made out to be a minor issue. Now, his availability for Opening Day is in question. Cain will be back and expects to be in the lineup almost every day this year as a key contributor.
But he’s 34 and will be 35 in April. While his quad injury doesn’t mean he will be hampered by various ailments all season long, he is getting older and likely can’t recover from the daily strains of playing center field like he used to.
Enter Bradley. Arguably an even better outfielder than Cain, who is really freakin’ good in his own right, Bradley is like a good life insurance policy: it offers protection in the event something goes wrong and it can also be an investment that produces real-time benefits in and of itself that you can reap while you’re still around. He can play right field primarily in the Yelich-Cain-Bradley trio and move over to center or left if either Yelich or Cain need a day off. Cain seems like a possible candidate for the Ryan Braun Veteran Maintenance Days Off, with the goal to keep him fresh for 162 games by playing healthy in 130 or so. That provides plenty of time for Bradley to get his plate appearances.
In those Yelich-Cain-Bradley alignments, the range of both Cain and Bradley could also help mitigate the less-than-stellar defense Yelich has played since coming to Milwaukee. With the range of a center fielder in right, Cain should be able to shade more toward the left-center gap and reduce some of the area Yelich is responsible for.
Garcia, meanwhile, is coming off a rough season and perhaps part of the Bradley signing was the Brewers not being fully confident in him getting 550 plate appearances in right while also serving as the primary backup center fielder. You’d much rather have a situation where you make Garcia force the manager’s hand and get his bat in the lineup if he starts out hot as opposed to banking on a bounceback for a player whose power all but disappeared in 2020.
The unfortunate part of the Bradley signing is that it’s not good news for guys like Tyrone Taylor, Billy McKinney or Derek Fisher. All seemed to have good chances of being solid contributors on the 2021 Brewers, but after Bradley entered the picture, it gets a little murkier.
Taylor still has minor league options, so he likely will start the year in AAA rather than be the third center fielder. McKinney and Fisher, though, would have to be subjected to waivers if they don’t make the Opening Day roster. While there’s still the chance one cracks the 26-man roster as the fifth outfielder, there didn’t seem to be much of a scenario that both made it before Bradley came aboard, much less after his signing.
Regardless of the fallout at the margins of the roster, Stearns has done it again. He has made the move nobody would have guessed he would have made, and he has done it with the clock approaching midnight.
Fun with small sample dingers
~Jake
Inarguably, the best part of Spring Training is watching one plate appearance or one inning or one pitch sequence and punch that into a calculator to see what that result projects to over the full season.
It’s a favorite pastime for all of us here at your favorite Twins-Brewers (Brewers-Twins?) newsletter. We like small sample madness so much we even do it in the regular season.
In the few moments that the Twins were viewable on FOX Sports North this week, I saw a few moments worth highlighting and, in true small sample fashion, they were all homers.
Josh Donaldson goes super saiyan
The newly platinum rain bringer crushed one to center Sunday against the defending American League champs and I’m getting ready to be vulnerable again. Last year wasn’t the year anyone wanted for Josh Donaldson, largely due to dumb injury luck. At 35 years old, that’s just part of the deal you get. He was still quite good when he was able to play last year, posting a 129 wRC+ in 28 games. That brief moment on Sunday, though, was a reminder of what the veteran slugger can do. The swing was practiced violence, a buildup and an explosion of kinetic energy. It’s entirely different beauty than a Wander Franco swing but it’s beautiful nonetheless.
There’s no small sample extrapolation from this swing. It doesn’t tell us about a new approach or show some new mechanic necessarily. It’s just that Josh Donaldson is present and if Josh Donaldson is present, he tends to make good things happen.
Keon of Neon
Keon Broxton allegedly played 100 games in 2019, none of which I can recollect. That’s probably because he struck out 45.6% of the time and hit just .167 for teams like Baltimore and Seattle.
Because I don’t remember those days, though, I can fully and wholeheartedly jump to the front of the Keon Broxton hype train.
All aboard, readers.
The Neon legend showed some serious power Sunday, bringing me back to 2017 days when he popped 20 goners for the Crew. His strikeout rate was still alarming back then (37.8%) but he was playable because of his power, speed and defense. In 2018, his batting average dropped 41 points largely due to some bad BABIP luck. And in 2019--OK, well, there’s no explaining that except with a shrug emoji. He was bad. Throw out a 2020 season in the minors because 2020 and here I am talking myself into Keon Broxton being a viable fourth outfielder.
Mitch Garver hits one to center
This is a small thing. It’s probably nothing, even. It’s ridiculous for even small sample discussion.
But.
Mitch Garver hit a homer to right-center the other day against the Red Sox. It wasn’t especially fast (“just” 102.4 miles per hour, the 12th-fastest exit velocity of the day for any player...thanks to Alex Colome, who was shelled all day) or especially far (373 feet). The only notable fact was that it was hit to right-center field.
For a lot of hitters, that happens quite often. For Garver, it may be a little itty bitty snippet of a return to form.
The Twins catcher managed just 81 plate appearances in 23 games last year due to injury--I know, small sample!--and both his homer were pulled to left or left-center. In fact, he managed just three singles to center and/or right-center last year. Everything else was pulled. He ended the year with a career-high 61.5% pull percentage on balls in play and career lows in center (25%) and oppo (13.9%). If he would’ve had enough plate appearances to qualify, that would’ve been the highest pull percentage in baseball last year.
Look back to 2019, his breakout year, and those numbers show he’s still pull-heavy, but much less so.
Specifically when it comes to his power numbers, nine of his 31 homers in 2019 went to centerfield, right-center or right field. Again, he’s still a pull hitter, but that ability to hit to slug to other parts of the field shows genuine power, something he was unable to tap into last year.
If you look back to his 2018 season, a rather unremarkable year, he had a much more even batted ball profile. He spread the ball around on the field, yes, but his power was concentrated to pulled balls. All of his seven homers that year went to left or left-center. It was only in 2019, the year he was arguably the best catcher in baseball, when he showed an ability to slug from foul pole to foul pole.
Garver hitting a Spring Training homer to right-center probably isn’t a big deal. He ran into one, and that could be that. Then again, it could be something, right?
TOM IS BACK.
~Tom
We all know the most important storyline of spring training every year is covering the players who claim to be in the “Best Shape of His Life,” as Jake detailed a couple of weeks ago with his brilliant #BSOHL tracker.
The second-most important thing to watch, of course, is position battles. Now, the Twins opening day lineup is pretty much set -- and has been for a while. The biggest unknowns heading into camp were who would take over for Eddie Rosario in left field, and who would rise as the team’s fifth starter.
Reading between the lines of quotes by Twins brass, it seems they’re willing to avoid the hassle of playing the Service Time Game with Alex Kirilloff (basically, that means holding him in the minor leagues until a certain date to keep him under contract for one year more down the road) and get him on the field as soon as possible. That could be me reading these quotes with too much optimism, but as of March 8, 2021, I do believe Kirilloff will win the job.
As for the starting rotation, the Twins signing Matt Shoemaker in late February answered that question. If he stays healthy, he’ll be the No. 5 starter behind the Maeda-Berrios-Pineda-Happ quartet. No disrespect to Randy Dobnak, but he’s got minor-league options remaining. Advantage Twins.
(One quick note about Dobnak: Manager Rocco Baldelli always refers to him in press conferences as “Dobber.” That nickname has never sat well with me. My mind immediately transports to the beach where Dobby the House Elf was buried in the seventh Harry Potter movie and I get emotional.)
Anyway, the position battle most intriguing to me is the fourth outfielder spot. There are four main candidates to make the Twins opening day 26-man roster as an additional outfielder, but there’s likely only room for one (well, two if Minnesota decides to start Kirilloff in the minor leagues, but we won’t go down that disappointing road).
And all four are having great camps.
Keon Broxton
Why he’ll win the battle: An #OldFriend of the newsletter, Broxton played for the Brewers from 2016-18 and peaked in ’17 with 20 home runs and 21 stolen bases. Broxton is an elite defender and a weapon on the base paths, already shown by stealing third base against Tampa Bay last Thursday. Imagine giving Buxton an off day in center field and not losing too much of his range out there. Or, heading into extra innings and placing Broxton as the runner to start the inning at second base. A manager’s dream.
Why he won’t: The cute 20-20 stat from 2017 fails to recognize a career slash line of .209/.297/.388. That’s not good. Really bad, actually. If one of the Twins starting outfielders suffered a long-term injury, giving Broxton consistent at-bats ahead of the other guys on this list … probably wouldn’t go over very well in Twins Territory.
Jake Cave
Why he’ll win the battle: Consistency. Cave owns a career 106 wRC+ and plays OK defense (although the man does not belong in center field). That’s just fine for a fourth outfielder.
Why he won’t: Ahhh, my longtime nemesis, Jacob Cave. We meet in the newsletter once more. One thing I’ll tell you about Cave: He's the best outfielder in baseball at diving for a ball and completely missing it. Or diving for a ball and trapping it in his glove after it bounces. If the baseball is going to hit the grass, Jacob, just pull up and let it bounce. There’s something so unnatural about the way this guy dives; it drives me nuts. I need to call my therapist.
Kyle Garlick
Why he’ll win the battle: If his name was Kyle Johnson, I probably would never think twice about him. But I’m not going to lie, I’ve been pulling for Kyle “Lather Me With” Garlick during camp. Apparently, it’s working. Garlick is 4 for 10 with one double, two big flies and six RBI in five exhibition games. Selfishly, I just want to make garlic puns all summer long, so I’m pulling for Mr. Garlick.
Why he won’t: Garlick is a 29-year-old outfielder with 16 career MLB starts under his belt. Those two things don’t add up. The best outcome for Garlick’s career is probably hit like crazy with the Twins in camp, make the opening day roster and put together a 2014 Chris Colabello month of April before slowly fading away and pivoting to Cameo.
Brent Rooker
Why he’ll win the battle: I mean, he should. The 26-year-old owns six big-league hits in 19 at-bats, three of those being extra bases (two doubles, one homer). And that power is only going to increase. Rooker also has the capability to play first base. A fourth outfielder who can also give Sano rest at first base or let Nelson Cruz take a day off at DH (and fill in seamlessly with his bat) does nothing but add to Rooker’s value to the Twins.
Why he won’t: If Rooker doesn’t make the opening day roster, I will give all of our subscribers a nickel on Venmo.
Prediction time: Alex Kirilloff wins the opening day job in left field, and Brent Rooker is there cheering him on. Jake Cave lands with an NBA team where his flopping around the outfield can be put to use taking charges in the lane. Kyle Garlick meets Guy Fieri and starts his own Italian restaurant chain. Keon Broxton is released and bats .172 for Detroit.