Brewers, Twins and the Hall of Fame ballots
Joe Nathan won't make it into the Hall....but should he?
Hello fellow rich people.
It has, indeed, been a few weeks since our last publish. Something about a lack of baseball news, I hear? Well, nevertheless, we are back just in time for the holidays, even if Tom did pack up and move from Minnesota to San Francisco recently.
Oh also did you hear the Wisconsin women’s volleyball team won the national championship? Yeah it was pretty sweet.
Let’s converse.
The case for Joe Nathan
~Jake
The mid 2000s are full of core memories for this newsletter. Torii Hunter robbing Barry Bonds of a homer in the All Star Game is imprinted on my frontal cortex. Doug Mientkiewicz stretching for an errant Cristian Guzman throw is truly an inspiration. And Carlos Gomez sliding into home plate for a game 163 win, I mean, come on. That’s obvious.
The most visceral of those still to this day, though, is nervous Joe Nathan, inhaling deeply and violently exhaling as if he wanted to be anywhere else in the world except the mound.
The longtime Twins closer is up for induction into the Hall of Fame this year and he’s far from the highlight of the show this year. With Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Sammy Sosa and Curt Schilling all in their last year of Hall eligibility, and marquee guys like Alex Rodriguez and David Ortiz joining the ballot this year, Nathan is bound to get buried.
It’s understandable. All reliever cases except for Mariano Rivera and Trevor Hoffman are weird cases. And Nathan sure wasn’t a closer for one of the great franchises of the 2000s, despite my best wishes, nor did he set--or even sniff--a saves record. Instead, he was just a consistently excellent reliever.
Nathan started with the Giants organization as a shortstop but very quickly transitioned to the mound, where he showed some promise as a rather forgettable starter. He struggled with his command, though, and gave up too many homers to be truly viable out of the rotation. As the saying goes, though, “If at first you don’t succeed, try parking their ass in the bullpen,” or something like that.
And you know what? It worked!
Nathan was excellent in 2003. He still walked too many guys, but at a more manageable 3.76 per nine innings rate instead of 6.08 in 2000. He brought his ERA down to 2.96 and jumped his strikeout rate from 5.88 per nine in 2000 to 9.46 in 2003. His curveball had more bite and he added a slider, making him a viable and trusted reliever.
So, why did he end up on the Twins?
Well, in 2003, Nathan was a 28-year-old reliever with only one good season. And, boy, when AJ Pierzynski is available, you go for it...apparently.
Nathan joined Francisco Liriano (then a top 100 prospect according to Baseball America) and Boof Bonser (the Giants’ 2000 first-round pick; also a MLB debut-maker with Curt in attendance in Milwaukee) on the caravan to Minnesota while Pierzynski’s one year left on his deal went to the Bay Area, blazing the trail for Tom Dierberger almost 20 years later.
Talk about a steal. Nathan went on to become a star closer while Liriano became a tantalizing fan favorite and Bonser became the source of my first argument with a random fan at a Twins game. Meanwhile Pierzynski continued to be Pierzynski.
You know the rest, at least spiritually: Joe became a stalwart at the back of the Twins bullpen for the next seven years, posting a miraculous 2.16 ERA (204 ERA+) in 460 appearances with 260 saves, striking out 10.9 batters per nine innings. He finished in the top-five of the Cy Young Award twice (2004 and 2006) and earned six career All Star appearances (four with Minnesota and two with Texas).
He had a hugely successful two-year sting in Texas before hanging around in Detroit, Chicago and the Giants again for a few years. By the end, Nathan wrapped with a 2.87 ERA, a 151 ERA+, 377 saves (8th most in a career), 9.5 K/9 and 26.4 bWAR.
Now, I get it: 26.4 WAR is quite low for a Hall of Famer. Only six players in the Hall have a lower WAR total. Relievers simply should be viewed a bit differently, though. Their job is, after all, different.
Luckily, legendary sabermetrician and Hall of Fame expert Jay Jaffe is trying to account for that. He developed the Jaffe WAR Score system (JAWS) to help determine a player’s Hall worthiness using a player’s WAR and 7-year peak WAR. The problem there, though, is that compares a reliever to a starter, and it’s near impossible for a reliever to reach similar WAR totals to a starter due to innings pitched. With that in mind, Jaffe developed R-JAWS, or Relief Pitcher JAWS.
The key difference here is it also factors in win probability added and leverage. Were you pitching in 8-0 blowouts or bases loaded in the ninth inning of one run games? That’s where your leverage comes in. If you get three outs in a tight game, you’re also adding more win probability than Mop-Up McGee.
OK, so what does that mean for Nathan? Well, my friend, that means everything.
Take all relievers and Dennis Eckersley ranks atop that list with 62.1 bWAR. Eck was great, but that’s not totally fair, the guy started 361 of his 1,071 games! Rivera is next at 56.3 and yeah, OK, fair play, he was as relievery as relievers get. But you get the point: relievers who also started a lot of games or old-time relievers who threw 3-4 innings a night are going to skew the WAR threshold. That’s why you have Nathan all the way down at 19th among all relievers and their WAR totals.
You look at his R-JAWS, though, and we’re telling a different story. Nathan ranks 8th in that section among all relievers ever at 24.4; the top five in that list are all Hall of Famers in Rivera, Eckersley, Hoyt Wilhelm, Goose Gossage and Trevor Hoffman. No. 6 is Billy Wagner, a should-be Hall guy, and Firpo Marberry, who pitched for the Washington Senators, Detroit Tigers and New York Baseball Giants from 1923-1936. Also noteworthy about Marberry is his name Firpo. This man was born and (presumably) baptized as Frederick and chose his name for all eternity to be Firpo. That’s Hall-worthy.
In short, the case for Nathan is a straightforward one: he was the best reliever outside of Mariano Rivera during a seven-year supernova period in which he was nails for all of those irregular seasons. His limited playoff action wasn’t good (8.10 ERA in 10 appearances) but that’s not exactly a great indicator of a 16 year career. He ranks 40th all time in win probability added and only four of the retired guys ahead of him aren’t in the Hall of Fame (and two of those guys are Roger Clemens and Curt Schilling).
Nathan almost surely won’t get in this year. With the ballot the way it is this year, there’s a chance he won’t even get the 5% needed to stay on the ballot. It would be a shame, though. Nathan and Wagner are going to set the level for what to expect with relievers and the Hall--they could be the difference between guys like Craig Kimbrel and Kenley Jansen getting in some day.
Before we go, it’s worth sharing something I found during my hour-long deep dive on Firpo Marberry (check out his SABR page), because it stands in stark contrast to Nathan and his career. Marberry started his career as a reliever and advocated for a starting role as he got older, saying, “Relief pitching is a job for a young pitcher. His arm can stand the wear and tear of uncertain work. … In my own case, I feel that I have earned the right to a change.” For Nathan, and countless relievers in the following years, the opposite has been true. There are so many failed starters in every team's bullpen. Nathan, though? He was much more than that.
Curt’s virtual HOF ballot
~Curt, obvi
As a young lad first getting into both baseball and journalism, few things intrigued me more than the possibility of becoming a Hall of Fame voter. The opportunity to have a say in which players get selected to join the pantheon of elite baseball folk? Where do I sign up?
But, now, I sit here at the theoretically-still-nimble age of 26, and I’m not sure I’d want a whole lot to do with Hall of Fame voting. Don’t get me wrong; the idea of being able to vote on who gets inducted in Cooperstown still seems like a fantastic honor. The Baseball Hall and all it represents still carries significant meaning to me, but what I’ve become somewhat disillusioned with is the entire Hall voting process.
I actually don’t mind how the process is lined up. In theory, media members represent the best possible voting contingent in terms of knowledge, history and ability to remove bias. Note that I didn’t say it’s a perfect contingent as far as those three categories go, but it sure beats former players and coaches or fans or a small panel as the electorate.
Seeing how the process has played out in recent years, though, has made me rather pessimistic about it all. And I’m not even talking specifically about the exclusion of known or suspected performance-enhancing drug users. (I do, by the way, think players like Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens absolutely deserve a spot in the Hall but that’s a topic for an entirely different discussion.) But so many ballots that get turned in are just, well, bad.
Blank ballots. Ones with completely inconsistent logic–wait, so you’ll vote for Bonds but not Clemens?--make my temples hurt. Supposed “Small Hall” voters turning a theory sans backbone (the percentage of former players inducted has continued to decrease by the decade) into two possible years in a row without anyone elected by the BBWAA? Todd Helton, who had a higher seven-year WAR peak than Derek Jeter despite doing so at polar opposite positions value-wise, not getting 30 percent of the vote in his third year?
It’s all maddening.
I’m not saying I want baseball’s Hall of Fame to be like basketball’s, where you can get in with a few All Star appearances, but for crying out loud, if we can’t get a guy who had an OPS between those of Jim Thome and Jeff Bagwell–without any suspected PED use, I might add–in the Hall, what are we doing here?
With all of that said, let’s take a look at who I would vote for in the 2022 election cycle.
Let’s get the obvious ones out of the way first. Because I have zero qualms (okay, maybe not zero but you get the point) about inducting guys who tested positive for PEDs, Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens and Alex Rodriguez are shoe-ins for me.
Reluctantly, I would vote for Curt Schilling, as well. The former pitcher has made headlines for all the wrong reasons, really, since his career ended and is a bad person by just about every measure. But it’s difficult to deny his Hall credentials as a player, and that’s what I believe Cooperstown should be about.
Scott Rolen is the last guy who’d make my ballot before the debate/comparison game began. He’s the next-best player of everyone left. Rolen never had an absurd offensive peak but few players combined strong, consistent offense with elite defense at a premium position like he did.
Down the ballot a bit, there is a logjam of guys with good cases but just don’t blow you away.
Andruw Jones gets a check from me from that group. A few things are working in his favor. First, he’s arguably the greatest defensive center fielder ever. This dude, from 1997 to 2007, was worth 26.7 wins from his defense alone according to Baseball Reference. I also tend to favor guys with insane peaks (#Justice4Johan) and, over a nine-year stretch only A-Rod and Bonds had a higher WAR in baseball than Jones. It’s also year number six on the ballot for Jones, so helping him pick up some voter momentum factors into it, as well.
Todd Helton, as is made obvious above, is maybe the player I cape for on this ballot the most. To me, he’s a Hall of Famer just about any way you spin it. Match that with his generally meh voting results (at 44.9% last year) and there’s reason to push the agenda. Helton was a statistical god with a career .316/.414/.539 slash line and 369 dingers. Adjust for the Coors Effect and that’s still an DRC+ of 139. He’s not a no-brainer but definitely a reasonable selection.
Left still with a handful of options, let’s SparkNotes the case for and against the rest of the guys I’d consider.
Manny Ramirez: Incredible offensive numbers, dragged down by poor defense, tested positive when substances were banned, struggling at 28% through six years.
Andy Pettitte: High win total, one of the best pitchers on the ballot, lots of postseason success, but just a 117 ERA+
Sammy Sosa: The counting numbers are there, as is the peak, but only three years in top 10 in WAR and not going to make the cut at 17% in his final year
Joe Nathan and Billy Wagner: Jake already talked about this in this edition.
Gary Sheffield: Impressive counting stats, three top-3 MVP finishes, PED connections and poor defense
Bobby Abreu: Elite on-base guy, WAR and peak numbers similar to Vlad Guerrero, only two All-Star Games and struggled in MVP voting, barely eligible at 8.7% in his third year
Jeff Kent: A great middle infield hitter and decent Survivor player but the WAR totals are hard to overlook
David Ortiz: One of the best designated hitters ever, one of the best postseason hitters ever, leak of a failed PED test, added no value defensively as a DH.
In a bit of a twist from what I expected when I began this exercise, I am selecting Gary Sheffield, Bobby Abreu and David Ortiz.
Sheffield, I worry, is being knocked too much for his defense in his WAR totals in eras where defense was quantified less accurately. The man had 2,683 hits, 509 homers and is 21st all-time in walks.
Abreu, as much as anything, is a strategic vote. It seems unlikely he will gain the juice to get elected but there is still plenty of time and crazier things have happened. Sosa has no shot and Ramirez seems very unlikely due to his known PED usage. Abreu was under-appreciated in his career but should not be any more.
Pettitte and Kent simply don’t have the numbers to justify bumping someone else above them. I so badly wanted to add Nathan or Wagner but comparing their careers to the pomp of Big Papi put things in perspective. Part of me would consider voting Nathan over Ortiz to help get him to the 5% needed to stay on the ballot (and also sets me up well for my future Josh Hader 4 Hall takes), but one of the two best designated hitters ever and arguably the greatest postseason performer of all-time gets the nod.
The ballot: Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Alex Rodriguez, Curt Schilling, Scott Rolen, Todd Helton, Gary Sheffield, Bobby Abreu, David Ortiz
Apologies to: Prince Fielder, my beloved large first baseman. At least you made the Brewers walk of honor?