Baseball is back! Gear up with our Opening Day Extravaganza Edition.
Analysis, previews, prop bets and predictions (in which things are looking mighty fine for the Twins)
Major League Baseball is back, for real, tonight.
I almost can’t believe I’m typing these very words. But you can double- and triple-check to make sure they’re correct and I promise you’ll like what you see.
Tonight, Max Scherzer will face off with Gerrit Cole in a real-life, actually-playing-for-something baseball game. Nearly four months after it was originally scheduled, Opening Day is here.
There will be dingers. And walk-offs. And no-hit bids. And Christian Yelich.
And we are psyched.
Let’s converse (about real!!!! baseball), fellow rich people.
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Do the Twins have an elite bullpen?
~Jake
It sounds funny, doesn’t it? The Twins don’t have elite bullpens, that isn’t normally a thing. Then again, at least until last year, they didn’t hit home runs either. Or strike people out. Or beat the Yanke--wait, that last part is still true.
Much like the home run explosion, though, this bullpen thing is real. And like some of the great bullpens in recent years, it’s a bullpen based on depth with one or two lockdown relievers.
Any respectable discussion about the Twins bullpen has to start with Taylor Rogers. He’s one of the top relievers in baseball, a guy who struck out 11.74 batters and walked just 1.43 per nine innings in 2019, logging a 2.61 ERA from a funky, left-handed delivery. It’s not the 15+ K/9 that Josh Hader has, but Rogers is right behind. He may not finish with a stupid amount of saves this year or any year, and that’s OK. He’s a versatile fireman that every good bullpen needs. He’s a go-to guy for the Twins; on average, he entered the game with a 1.99 Leverage Index, fourth-highest in all of baseball. He’s the bullpen ace.
Any elite bullpen needs multiple strong options behind their ace. Think of the 2015 Royals. Sure, Wade Davis was the star with a 0.94 ERA and 10.43 K/9. But they also had nominal closer Greg Holland (3.83 ERA), Ryan Madson (2.13 ERA) and Kelvin Herrera (2.71 ERA). Any of those three could have been closers on other teams.
The Twins have that, too. Past Rogers, they have Tyler Duffey, Trevor May, Sergio Romo and Tyler Clippard, all of whom could close and likely will close in 2020. Twins fans have been waiting for May’s breakout ever since the Ben Revere trade and since Vance Worley squatted and pooed all over the 2013 season. Last year was that breakout season. He struck out 11.05 batters per nine and kept a nice 2.94 ERA and, though walks continue to be an issue, he shows some great stuff.
Duffey is oddly electric, too, given his very average looking nature (sorry Duffey). He punched out 12.8 batters per nine innings with a 2.50 ERA. That’s the kind of stuff that could lead to a microscopic ERA.
Throw in Clippard and Romo, elder statesmen who bring goofy looks from the mound and veteran pitching ability.
So, if you’re keeping track at home, that’s four guys from last year who struck out at least 10.72 batters every nine innings, six guys with an ERA below 3.18, and nobody tanking the bullpen with bad outing after bad outing.
This 2020 bullpen has all the good pieces from a bullpen that led the league in FIP- last year (85) and walked the fewest batters per nine innings (2.90). Better than the crazy deep Rays bullpen or the top-heavy A’s bullpen. Even better than the outrageously talented (and paid) Yankees bullpen.
This year will be full of extremes, especially for relievers. Two bad outings in a 60-game season could mean the difference between a 2.00 ERA and a 5.00 ERA. The Twins not only have the arms to deal with injuries or overcome the normal bullpen inconsistencies; they’ll have one of the best bullpens in baseball.
It feels as if it’s been months since baseball talk centered around, you know, actual baseball in the same way it usually is leading into a season. This is, of course, because it has been months since early March.
The Brewers infield could be…actually better??
~Curt
Back when the season previews were rolling in and teams’ off-seasons were the biggest point of discussion, though, there was plenty of discussion about the Milwaukee infield. And rumors of the Brewers infield’s demise are greatly exaggerated.
The Brewers infield was a collectively very bad unit in 2019, among the worst in baseball.
Forty-eight percent of the plate appearances in the infield went to Keston Hiura (138 OPS+), Eric Thames (117) and Mike Moustakas (114), yet Milwaukee infielders as a whole still had an OPS+ of 81. Even with an All-Star, a red-hot second baseman with a BABIP over .400 and a first baseman who walked 11 percent of the time and had a .258 isolated slugging percentage, the unit as a whole was basically 2019 Lorenzo Cain at the plate. And that’s not good.
Outside of those three players, the rest of the infield was worth -1.9 fWAR and had a .587 OPS. People, Jacob deGrom had a .569 OPS. That’s 23 percent of the entire team’s non-pitcher plate appearances that were flat-out awful.
It would make sense, then, that the Brewers losing their most established hitter from that group, Moustakas, as well as Thames and without any in-house replacements would leave them in dire straits in the infield.
But the way that the team went out with the old and in with the new should give them a lift.
It felt like the biggest outcry among Brewers fans during the offseason (remember that?) was that they did not re-sign Moustakas, who got $64 million guaranteed from the Reds.
Moustakas, after all, became a fan favorite, hit lots of dingers, was named an All-Star, hit a walk-off in the playoffs, moved positions for the good of the team, moved back again for the good of the team, had a name that made it acceptable to say “Mooooose” very loudly in public and had a proclivity for picking absolute bangers for walk-up songs.
Now, rule number one of Rich People Conversations is that billionaires owners have lots of money and we, even as rich people who are conversing, do not advocate for penny-pinching. As that rule relates to Moustakas, of course the Brewers had the money to pay him. Most fans would have no qualms if Mark Attanasio opened up his pocketbooks--and I mean opened up his pocketbooks--and lost some serious money by paying a bunch of free agents. But the reality is that the Brewers did not do that and, as much as the public would like them to open their books, they will probably never be the big spenders.
They are, instead, banking on some Stearnsian team-building qualities to replace Moustakas and Thames.
In 2019, Moustakas had career-best BB% and ISO, and his BABIP was close to his career average. Even with all of that going in his favor, he finished the year with a 113 wRC+ and 2.8 fWAR/2.9 WARP. He got $64 million guaranteed and will be 32 in September. It’s not exactly bank-breaking stuff, but definitely not something the Brewers were comfortable spending all things considered.
One of those considerations is the replacements that were available.
Jedd Gyorko signed a one-year, $2 million deal with a 2021 club option and a $1 million buyout. From 2015-2018, Gyorko and Moose were comparable. Injuries derailed Gyorko’s 2019, however, and, splitting time between deep organizations in St. Louis and Los Angeles, he got no consistent playing time when he was healthy. Gyorko’s average exit velocity of 85.8 mph was not great, but that’s never been his calling card. He holds a career .279 BABIP, but that number was 212 BABIP last year. ZiPS pegs Gyorko for a 100 wRC+ with six homers in the shortened season; the projection system pegs Moustakas to sock 12 homers in a hitter-friendly environment, but fewer walks and a lesser likelihood to hit for average when he’s not hitting the ball out of the park keeps his wRC+ projection at 112.
Gyorko also won’t be assuming the full workload that Moustakas, sporting a career .719 OPS against lefties, would because of his contract. Gyorko for his career has a .796 OPS vs. lefties, compared to a .705 mark vs. right-handers; his versus-southpaw OPS was .919 as recently as 2018.
Preliminary indications would suggest that Gyorko will primarily split time with Eric Sogard at third, although the combination of Gyorko being on the “wrong” side of the platoon, having been the better hitter historically, the likelihood of Sogard moving around the infield at times and the advent of the designated hitter means that it won’t be a true platoon.
Sogard’s career platoon splits are much more balanced, and what he gives the Brewers is depth that they didn’t end up having last year (despite maybe thinking they did with uber-versatile Hernan Perez before ending up with poor performances from three-fourths of the infield).
It must have been tough to allow Thames walk, especially after he had a team option and was the man who stabilized a position that was not only in flux but straight up bad for five straight post-Prince Fielder years. It must have come down to the Brewers simply liking Smoak more. and you can understand the thinking in light of the later offseason moves that showed the lineup will be full of mixing-and-matching depending on the day. Smoak also walks more and strikes out less than Thames while still having the same lefty pulling-fly-ball abilities. There’s a chance it backfires, but it could also hit with him returning to 2017-18 form. We don’t know!
Looking over to shortstop, I’d like to say there’s no way Orlando Arcia is any worse, but I’m not really trying to tempt fate. It feels like we’ve said that in the off-season in the past and last year he was still really bad! I didn’t even look at any Arcia metrics for this article because, unless they were 2018 playoff numbers, they would just make me, and you, sad.
But, once again, the Brewers followed their 2020 infield strategy of contingency plans left and right by adding Luis Urias in the trade that shipped Zach Davies and Trent Grisham to San Diego. We haven’t gotten a great look at him as a Brewer yet due to a hand injury in the spring and, now, being on the Injured List for an illness (likely COVID-19).
The ultimate contingency plan might just be the guy we haven’t discussed yet: Brock Holt. the 32-year-old was the last of the slap-hitting, high-walk rate infielders the Brewers brought on for 2020. Banking on Holt to take on the Hernan Perez role seems like a safe bet, albeit with less pop but better batted-ball skills and lacking the disdain for drawing walks.
Throw in some Logan Morrison, who’s more of a DH than infield type, and perhaps a dash of Ryon Healy, mix it all together and you can pretty much expect a hodgepodge of about league-average return at the plate (though expectations for Smoak are certainly higher than that) and an infield defense that, well, I’d rather not talk about that right now. Chunk in above-average bats in Keston Hiura, Omar Narvaez, Ryan Braun, Avisail Garcia and probably also some guy named Chris Yelich and you start to see the full picture.
Will the Brewers have three infielders once again combine for 120 OPS+ like in 2019? Probably not, unless Gyorko erupts and Hiura has a .402 BABIP again. But the sum of the parts is going to be better than it was in 2019, and, who knows, they might just catch lightning in a bottle on one of these one-year deals.
RPC 2020 Season Predictions
Aka let’s pick some stuff and be woefully wrong about it.
American League
Central
Twins 36-24
White Sox 32-28
Indians 29-31
Royals 23-37
Tigers 20-40
East
Yankees 38-22
Rays 35-25 (WC)
Blue Jays 30-30
Red Sox 28-32
Orioles 19-41
West
Astros 34-26
Angels 33-27 (WC)
Athletics 29-31
Rangers 28-32
Mariners 25-35
National League
Central
Brewers 33-27
Cardinals 33-27 (WC)
Reds 33-27 (WC)
Cubs 31-29
Pirates 23-27
East
Nationals 33-27
Braves 32-28
Mets 31-29
Phillies 31-29
Marlins 28-32
West
Dodgers 41-19
Diamondbacks 32-28
Padres 31-29
Giants 25-35
Rockies 25-35
Wild Card
Angels over Rays
Cardinals over Reds
Division Series
Yankees over Angels
Twins over Astros
Dodgers over Cardinals
Nationals over Brewers
Championship Series
Twins over Yankees (whoa)
Dodgers over Nationals
World Series
Twins over Dodgers
That’s correct. The Minnesota Twins are the official Rich People Conversations 2020 World Series Preseason Champions.
Picks on picks on picks
Breakout players
Curt: Justin Smoak (Brewers) and Zack Littell (Twins)
What really makes one a “breakout” player? Normally, you’d consider it to be a person like a 2019 Keston Hiura who hadn’t had much big league success before bursting onto the scene big time. But who do the Brewers have that could really fit that bill? Adrian Houser or Luis Urias could be the picks, I suppose. But Houser’s ceiling relative to how he’s already performed really isn’t that high, and Urias is out for who knows how long. There are some other young arms in the mix that I could take, but I’m going to take Smoak. He may have been in the league for 10 years already, but I’ll go on the record as saying this is a big year for Justin as he smokes (I’m sorry) the ball for a contending team.
As for Littell...the Twins literally had like 11 breakout players last year, which leaves few options for my 2020 pick.
Jake: Brock Holt (Brewers) and Tyler Duffey (Twins)
I think Holt is going to get a sneaky amount of playing time thanks to his versatility and, well, the other options. We’ve seen Holt a lot over the past eight years (?!) so his breakout probably won’t come in the form of double digit dingers or anything, but he’s a high BABIP guy (.331 career) who walks a fair bit and is starting to hit the ball harder. He posted a career-high 35.4% hard-hit rate last year and is starting to elevate the ball a bit. He probably won’t homer but if he could string some doubles together, that’s breakout-y.
On the Twins side, Curt is right: it's hard to pick a breakout guy for the Twins when the whole dang team broke out last year. Duffey might be the one to go from good-but-forgettable bullpen guy to full-blown stopper. He struck out 34.5% of the batters he faced last year and walked just 5.9 percent, so he's no Josh Hader, but that's some rough times for hitters. He's not the go-to guy in tough spots (hello Taylor Rogers) so he doesn't have the major shine yet, and probably won't. He could go on a crazy good stretch, though, and
Tom: Brent Suter (Brewers) and Randy Dobnak (Twins)
Can you have a breakout season at age 30? Probably not. But then again -- do we really know who Suter is as a pitcher? He returned from Tommy John surgery in September last year and was phenomenal to finish the season, allowing one run in 19 1/3 innings -- including a scoreless frame in the wild-card game. While Suter won’t initially be a starter, Counsell has been upfront about how he won’t stick to the traditional five-man rotation. As someone who can eat up innings and also be trusted in big spots, Suter fits the bill perfectly. Bring on the Year of The Raptor.
As for the Twinkies, why not choose another fan favorite in Randy Dobnak? Thanks to his Fu Manchu and 4.99 Uber rating, Dobnak has developed a cult following in Twins Territory. But he’s not just a bit. In nine appearances last year with the Twins, Dobnak logged a 4.6 K/BB and consistently kept the ball on the ground (52.9% GB). Plus, I’m sorry, but Homer Bailey is not a lock to stay in the rotation all season. (As I’m writing this Wednesday night, I’ve watched him give up THREE moonshots in the Twins-Cubs scrimmage.) I’d trust Dobnak in a playoff game over “Ope, I gave up another” Homer. I said it.
Player we’re (dangerously) optimistic about this year
Curt: Corbin Burnes (Brewers) and Kenta Maeda (Twins)
The Corbin Burnes fascination is nothing new here. Even last year when he was one of the worst pitchers in baseball, you could see the potential in his high-spin rate fastball and sharp slider. Now that he appears to not be throwing low fastballs, I’m all in on Corbin Burnes.
Twins fans, let me tell you something about Kenta Maeda as a man who traded far too much for him in fantasy last year. This dude brings completely filthy offerings to the yard every single night. There’s the occasional 4 IP, 6 ER blowup, but he’s underperformed his FIP three straight seasons and the Twins outfield is here to fix that.
Jake: Keston Hiura (Brewers) and Byron Buxton (Twins)
Oh, I can’t wait to see Byron Buxton win every MVP award. This year is his year (just like last year and the year before that and....shut up, inner dialogue). I will forever dream on a full season of healthy Buxton. Maybe it’s not likely, especially given his most recent foot injury, one that may have involved tears on my end. I don’t care if it isn’t likely, though. He has special abilities that few in baseball can emulate. We saw glimpses of it last year. His stick came together with his outstanding defense and he was worth 2.7 fWAR over just 87 games. I’m a believer. Still.
KestDaddy is a big booty basher (the real BBB) who is just so much fun to watch. Maybe it’s weird to be dangerously optimistic about a guy like Hiura, who torched the league in his first year. It’s just normal to be optimistic about someone like that. The danger, though, comes with the fact that this is his sophomore year. Part of me wants to extrapolate his stellar, yet shortened, 2019 season and call him the next Robinson Cano (minus the juice, calm down Crew fans). I also recognize that might have been lightning in a bottle and regression is possible, if even likely. I’m bullish, though. Just like I am with Luis Arraez and, well, every other breakout Twin from last year.
Tom: Eric Sogard (Brewers) and Mitch Garver (Twins)
GIVE ME ALL THE #NERDPOWER. As president and treasurer of Sogard Stans, Inc., I’m going to look right past Sogard’s struggles with the Crew in 2018 and instead drool over his career-best .342 wOBA and 2.6 WAR last year with Toronto and Tampa Bay. Craig, give Sogard 40 starts in the hot corner and 150 at-bats, please.
If we’re charting hot sauces, Garv Sauce went from “mild” to “EXTREMELY F***ING SPICY” in 2019. He porked a career-high 31 homers in 93 games. That’s one dinger every 10 at-bats. Twenty-nine percent of Garver’s fly balls landed in the seats. I mean, the stats are ludacris -- enough that Garver has come out during summer camp and said, “yeah, don’t expect me to be that good again.” Many fans are going to look for The Sauce to repeat his 2019 campaign and clobber 35 homers in 60 games, which is absurd. But no matter how much I fight it, I’m one of those delusional fans. Bite me.
Team MVPs
Curt: Christian Yelich (Brewers) and Byron Buxton (Twins)
One selection here is as uncontroversial as they get. The other is, well, relying on a guy who probably couldn’t stay healthy at an orthodontics convention. But Buxton has been healthy for 60-game stretches before. Throw a 110 wRC+ on top of elite, elite defense and you’ve got yourself a 2.5-3 win player in a short season.
Jake: Christian Yelich (Brewers) and Max Kepler (Twins)
What, was I supposed to pick someone aside from Yelich? Yasmani is gone, so it’s obviously Yeli.
I love the Buxton pick from Curt, but I think it’ll be Kepler, who had a monster (and hopefully sustainable) 2019 season. He smacked 36 dingers in 596 plate appearances last year while continuing to play a strong right field. His career has been anything but consistent, and yet he oddly feels like the safest pick. He changed his approach at the plate, going for a pull-heavy approach while posting a career-best hard-hit rate. Those are tangible changes that ought to carry over. At 27 years old, it feels like 2019 was his realization of all his potential.
Tom: Christian Yelich (Brewers) and Taylor Rogers (Twins)
If Yelich isn’t the best player on the Brewers this season, they’re going to have a tough time sneaking into the playoffs. (And a side note to Curt’s pick, which I love: If Buxton is the Twins’ 2020 MVP, you can go ahead and ship the World Series trophy to Minnesota.) ((Which,,,folks just keep reading)).
The cliche “every game counts” will never be more true in baseball than during this 60-game sprint. A blown ninth-inning lead will sting a bit harder. Enter Rogers. We’ve watched his ERA fall and K/9 rise since debuting with the Twins in 2016. He likely would’ve been named an All-Star this summer, so since that won’t happen, we’ll give the lefty the team MVP nod.
League awards aka Mike Trout Lovefest Time
I mean, just look at him.MVP
Curt: Mike Trout (AL) and Juan Soto (NL)
Lolz. As if I would pick a player not named Michael Nelson Trout.
Soto won’t turn 22 until late October, which is absolutely insane because he has to be one of the top-five most feared hitters in baseball. He’s not a great defender, so he doesn’t get the MVP boost there, but in a shortened season the one thing you can probably rely on the most is ball/strike recognition. And, boy, does Soto have that. He’s posted a 16.2 BB% in his age-19 and 20 seasons in the majors, which is absurd. Throw in a good chance to sock 15 dingers and make the playoffs with that .400+ OBP and you’ve got yourself an MVP candidate.
Jake: Mike Trout (AL) and Ketel Marte (NL)
I’ll pick Mike Trout until he gives me a reason not to. If he ends up opting out of the season because of COVID-19 and his crappy team, I think Francisco Lindor is an obvious pick, but let’s all hail Trout.
Ronald Acuna feels like the right choice in the NL but that also feels too obvious. Ketel Marte is someone who can do a bit of everything on the diamond, posting career highs in basically everything last year. His 32 home runs came out of nowhere, more than doubling his career totals, while slashing a stupid .329/.389/.592. He doesn’t strike out really and walks a fair bit, too. Add in positional versatility and you’ve got a complete player. Also, I don’t think the Diamondbacks are going to get past the seemingly-invincible Dodgers, but I could see them winning 35+ games, surprising everyone and he would be the reason.
Tom: Mike Trout (AL) and Ronald Acuna Jr. (NL)
Trout because … Trout. Jake is right, picking Acuna for NL MVP is a boring pick. But watching the 22-year-old on the diamond is anything but boring. Acuna can do it all. He sent 41 baseballs over the wall last season and swiped a league-high 37 bags. Put up big numbers in those two categories again and Acuna might have to make room next to his 2019 Rookie of the Year trophy.
Cy Young
Curt: Stephen Strasburg (NL) and Gerrit Cole (AL)
I wanted to take Walker Buehler here so badly, but the Dodgers are planning on throwing him for 3-4 innings for his first couple of starts, which will probably keep him from winning Cy Young. Naturally, then, I’ll give it to the guy who I probably want to win on the most. Strasburg is quietly putting together a very good Hall of Fame case, and last year’s postseason will only further that. A Cy Young would probably get him over the hump for sure.
Cole might just strike out like 14 guys per nine innings, which would practically make him a shoe-in here.
Jake: Josh Hader (NL) and Gerrit Cole (AL)
With the limited game action this year, we simply won’t see starters as often this year and the stats are going to feel odd. We won’t see anyone strike out 300 batters, or even 200. There won’t be anyone with more than 10 wins, which, sure, dumb stat, but often still means a little something for voters. So this might be a year where a reliever takes it home. While someone like Brandon Woodruff may get 10-12 starts, Josh Hader could pitch in 25-30 games. That’s on the very high end, but a dominant Hader playing every other day is going to be more memorable than a handful of good starts from Jack Flaherty. One could argue that though starters won’t get wins, relievers won’t get saves either, and that’s true! Which is why someone like Hader, a multi-inning fireman, is the perfect pick. He’ll get some saves, so some voters will be appeased that way, but he’s also a modern reliever, capable of unfathomably strikeout rates over multi-inning stretches. He threw 75-2/3 innings last year across 61 games. Asking him to pitch 30 games is a lot, but if he can do it, he might win.
Oh, and Gerrit Cole now pitches for the biggest market and was probably snubbed for a Cy Young last year. He’ll pitch well in front of a ton of fans, probably strike out 100 batters and win a make up trophy.
Tom: Dinelson Lamet (NL) and Lucas Giolito (AL)
While avoiding all of my other responsibilities and writing this newsletter, I was looking up Cy Young award odds just for fun. I scrolled past the first five names on the NL list (Strasburg, Buehler, deGrom, Scherzer) to find the next tier. And my oh my, there was Lamet with the 12th-best odds to win it. Lamet, a Strikeout King for the San Diego Dads, returned from Tommy John surgery last year. He whiffed 33.6% of batters he faced over 14 starts, adding up to a glorious 13.0 K/9. If he can stay healthy, why not?
I couldn’t fathom having Cole the unanimous RPC Cy Young winner, so I went with Giolito (even though, sure, it’s probably going to be Cole). Based on our standings predictions above, we’re pretty high on the White Sox. Giolito needs to be the ace he was last year (3.43 FIP and 11.6 K/9) -- and a bit more for this to happen.
Rookie of the Year
Curt: Luis Robert (AL) and Kwang-hyun Kim (Cardinals)
Historically, this is the award I’m the worst at picking (I picked Dustin Fowler in 2018, man), so naturally I’m cheaping out with my first pick. Robert is a) an absolute stud b) going to get lots of playing time this year, which may be even more important given the uncertainty around the other guys in the AL.
Gavin Lux would be an easy pick for the NL, but he’s not starting the year with the team. I could see a Joey Bart or a Dylan Carlson getting called up and raking, but, again, I like my guys that have guaranteed playing time, and Cardinals pitcher Kwang-hyun Kim has just that. He’s been named the closer to start the season and I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see him get five or so starts by season’s end, as well.
Jake: Luis Robert (AL) and Shogo Akiyama (NL)
As a blatant Twins fan, I’m doing everything I can to root for Luis Robert (LuBob) to not be a transcendent star but then I saw this and I’ve just accepted he’s going to be great. The White Sox are Baseball Twitter’s AL team and he’s a big reason why. Highly GIFable and everything you would want from a prospect.
Meanwhile, Shogo Akiyama is a season veteran who is going to slot right in at centerfield and as leadoff for a good-looking Reds team. It almost feels unfair to young guys like Gavin Lux, who are more likely to battle inconsistency as they get used to the Bigs.
Tom: Luis Robert (AL) and Dylan Carlson (NL)
Yeah, it’s probably going to be Robert in the AL based on opportunity alone. I’m going with Carlson in the NL. Carlson won’t be in a Cardinals uniform to start the year, but only because St. Louis is holding him out for the opening six days to avoid losing one year of control. Once he’s in the lineup, those 28 homers and .372 OBP in the minors last season should translate well to the big leagues.
“Bad” team that has the best chance of making the playoffs
Curt: Blue Jays
The Blue Jays would probably be pretty mediocre over a 162-game season (PECOTA has them at 28-32 over the 60-game year), and now they’re about to start a season in one day and we have no idea where their home games will be played. But there’s something about a lineup that goes Bichette/Biggio/Gurriel/Vladdy and then features boppers Rowdy Tellez, Randal Grichuk, Teoscar Hernandez and buy-low Travis Shaw that just sits in my stomach like a satisfying chicken parm. (As for the pitching, don’t look, although maybe Nate Pearson will eventually get to help out).
Jake: Miami Marlins
LEW BRINSON SZN. Just kidding. Listen, the Marlins are almost for sure going to be super bad. But, couldn’t you kinda see a slightly above average lineup with Jon Villar, Brian Anderson (nvm), Corey Dickerson, Jesus Aguilar and Jorge Alfaro? They’re almost all former prospects who have fizzled a bit, but it feels like the Southeastern Brewers(TM) could put together a frisky 60 games. The Phillies and Mets are one or two injuries/bad management decisions from having a rough year and the Nats may still be drunk from their celebration. The Marlins have a nice mix of serviceable veterans and prospects reaching the bigs (Isan Diaz and Jesus Sanchez) that could make it mildly watchable at least. Also, Jose Urena can’t be that bad again, right?
Tom: San Diego Padres
I swear I’ve picked the Padres here for the last three years. In 2018, they gave Curt’s all-time favorite first baseman Eric Hosmer $144 million. Last offseason, of course, it was the monster $300 deal to Brewers villain Manny Machado. In 2020, it’s the possibility of pitching prospects MacKenzie Gore and Luis Patino joining the rotation that has me excited. San Diego actually has a pretty decent bullpen with former Brewers stopper Drew Pomeranz setting up Kirby Yates late in ball games. Combine all that with a healthy Fernando Tatis at shortstop, a throwback brown-and-gold rebrand and, wallah! I just talked myself into believing again.
Ongoing no-hitter picks: The guy who we think will throw the next no-hitter
Curt: Trevor Bauer
He’s been up-and-down recently, but on any given night he’s got the ability to have the nastiest stuff. There’s a lot of this, though, that’s banking on a Reds defense that was 20th-best in the league per Fangraphs last year before it proceeded to get rid of Jose Iglesias and add Freddy Galvis, Nick Castellanos and Mike Moustakas.
Jake: Jack Flaherty
Cardinals fans have been anointing Flaherty as the next Bob Gibson for what feels like centuries at this point and he’s a bit overhyped at this point, but he has a few things going in his favor. 1. He has very good stuff with a strong mix. 2. An old school manager who will let him keep rolling even if it isn’t in his best interest. 3. A stellar defense behind him.
Tom: Shane Bieber
I’ve got Bieber Fever. First off, Cleveland will spend 33% of its season playing against two of the worst lineups in baseball -- Kansas City and Detroit. Secondly, Bieber tied for the AL lead in complete games (3) and shutouts (2) last year. That’s enough for me to pencil him in for a no-no this summer.
Let’s play ball.