An epic ejection, a Cy Young case and what we learned from the past week
The regular season is winding down, but the newsletter is just starting to heat up.
Rich People Conversations is (we think) the world’s only Brewers-and-Twins newsletter. Written by three friends who spend far too much time watching MLB.tv, it takes a look at the quirky side of baseball while also delivering plenty of analysis and #takes. You can subscribe—for free—below.
Where has the time gone?
The regular season is near to its conclusion, with just one week’s worth of games to play before this campaign that has felt like more of a formality to Twins fans but a complete slog to the Brewers gives way to the playoffs.
And not only is the MLB regular season reaching its end, but so is Sunday Brunch With Mike Trout, the very enthralling NL-only dynasty fantasy baseball league that features all three of your favorite Rich People Conversations authors. This year’s championship series has a particular RPC flavor to it, as well, with top seed Chobani Gallardo (Curt) facing off with the Great Hambinos (Tom). Jake, whose Finding Nimmo squad returned the playoffs before running out of offense, just hopes both teams have fun.
Let’s converse.
Ranking Bringer of Rain’s bringing of the heat
~ Tom
Baseball fans complained that my all-time favorite athlete, Joseph Patrick Mauer, was too boring.
Eyes would roll as he would filter any situation into two categories: “frustrating” or “pretty good.” He’d never get too low, and certainly never too high. The haters didn’t even appreciate Mauer’s electric Kemps commercials.
So, why on Earth are those same people criticizing Josh Donaldson for being too loud?
In case you missed it, Donaldson was ejected in unique fashion from Thursday’s series finale in Chicago. During his at-bat in the sixth inning, Donaldson strongly disagreed with a strike call made by home plate umpire Dan Bellino. What should have been a 3-0 count became 2-1. Twins manager Rocco Baldelli hustled out of the dugout to stick up for his slugger and protect him from getting tossed so he still had a chance to mash.
On the very next pitch, Donaldson did just that. He blasted a rope into the left-field seats and trotted around the bases. But right before Donaldson reached home, he kicked dirt on the plate in disgust, clearly having past calls on his mind. Bellino was not a fan of that and tossed him almost immediately.
We in the Rich People Conversations offices were able to access the hot mics to ascertain what Bellino yelled at Donaldson.
“Josh, get outta here. Get the f*ck outta here. Alright. You’re a real big man.”
Donaldson is getting criticized by Twins fans because his ejection had a big impact on the rest of the ball game. At the time, Donaldson’s homer gave the Twins a 3-2 lead in the sixth inning. But Ehire Adrianza, who is not having a #good season in the field or at the plate, stepped in for him. Adrianza wasn’t able to get to a couple of balls in the hot corner and struck out in the eighth inning. Minnesota lost the game 4-3.
But let’s not freak out. Since there will be no fans in the stands to create a home-field advantage in the postseason, there’s really no benefit to winning the AL Central this summer other than hanging up another banner at Target Field.
Instead of scowling at Donaldson’s tantrum, let’s celebrate it.
After watching the Twins struggle in the postseason for, oh I don’t know, my entire life, maybe the team has been missing a little attitude. A little tenacity. A little “IDGAF” mentality.
In a press conference Saturday afternoon, Donaldson doubled down on his antics at home plate and basically threw down a two-handed slam with his nuts dangling in Bellino’s face on the Zoom call. If you think that description is graphic, just wait to hear his quotes.
Let’s rank our favorites:
#5
“There’s a lot of other things I’m not going to go into at the moment. I’m going to wait until I get my piece of paper from MLB and then I’ll be as vocal as I want to about this certain individual that this was about.”
TOM’S TAKE: Calling a fine that could end up being around $10k just “a piece of paper” is so beautifully disrespectful.
#4
“I just want to kind of see where this goes. First off, how MLB is going to play it. Then I’ll come out with further things. There were more things to it than that one particular moment. There was a lot of things that boiled up to that situation where I was like, ‘look, if he really wants this attention, I’ll give it to him.’”
TOM’S TAKE: In the Harry Potter movie universe, this is like when Voldemort grabs the Elder Wand in the final seconds of the seventh film. THERE WILL BE A SEQUEL, FOLKS!
#3
“1-1 counts are probably the biggest counts in baseball. 1-1 count, you have .334 MLB batting average, .534 slugging, .837 OPS—all of which are quite good. That pitch that gets called a strike, that’s actually a ball, now you go to a 1-2 count. The expecting batting average is .165, on-base .172, slugging .249, OPS .422. You want to start getting into analytic, guess what? When those pitches go my way or the pitcher’s way, that’s affecting our careers. Our success. At the end of the day, there’s no reprimand, no accountability for the guys that are making the decisions.”
TOM’S TAKE: JOSH BROUGHT THE FANGRAPHS RECEIPTS!!
#2
“As a matter of fact, they don’t care at all—most of them. They just want to get the game over with for the most part. It’s pretty sad because [umpires] are making six figures per year, and there’s no accountability. … They just go out here, show up every day at 6 o’clock and then they’re out of here 30 minutes after the game.”
TOM’S TAKE: Every Little League dad or mom can relate to this. File this one under the same category as “Got a hot date tonight, blue?” or “Hey blue, if you had another eye, you’d be a cyclops!” Same energy.
#1
“I think I nailed it, actually. I heard, Justin [Morneau], that you had a lot of people texting you saying they’re embarrassed. I’m not. This is my livelihood. This is part of what makes me the player that I am.”
TOM’S TAKE: From here on out, any time anyone questions something I did, I will respond with the words “I think I nailed it, actually.”
The season is on the line and we are about to discuss backup catchers
~Curt
Given that the Brewers are 26-26 and, if the season ended today, would not be in the playoffs, it would feel odd to sit here and say that there have been many things to get excited for about this team.
Get ready to feel weird, then, I guess, because I’m saying there have been many things to get excited for about this team.
The young pitching. Ryan Braun’s September Fountain of Youth. Big Dan Vogelbach’s surge. Jedd Gyorko mashing.
With all of those things going on and the Brewers winning six of eight last week to get back in the playoff picture, the thing that has stood out to me as much as anything recently is...Jacob Nottingham looking like a useful big league catcher?
This isn’t sexy. It isn’t going to take up many headlines. And it’s taken a backseat, and understandably so, to the multiple other breakouts on the 2020 Brewers, as well as the notable disappointing seasons had by a handful of players. But it’s notable for not only this current iteration of the Brewers, but the future, as well.
Nottingham was the centerpiece that came back to the Brewers in the trade that sent Khris Davis to Oakland following the 2015 season as David Stearns fully engaged in Operation Trade Literally Any Big League Asset That Can Be Traded. Nottingham was ranked as the No. 66 prospect in baseball at the time by Baseball Prospectus, having just hit .309/.364/.493 between Low-A and High-A as a 20-year-old the year before.
There were questions about how his defense would hold up behind the plate, but one thing seemed certain: the man with the beautiful salad could hit.
After that, though, while Khris Davis mashed in Oakland (albeit as the DH, something not afforded in the NL; we won’t revisit why not having Khris Davis didn’t hurt the Brewers that much now), Nottingham slipped down Brewers prospect lists as his bat faded. The Brewers protected him on their 40-man, but between acquiring Manny Pina and Stephen Vogt and Jett Bandy and Yasmani Grandal and Erik Kratz and Andrew Susac and Omar Narvaez, it sure seemed like Nottingham was an afterthought.
Nottingham had just one minor league option left entering 2020 despite just 31 big league plate appearances to that point. With Narvaez and Pina locks to make the roster, Nottingham would have to use that last option and, from there, it seemed like he would be staring at a future with a different organization.
But Pina went down in late August with a season-ending knee injury, opening a door for who else but Nottingham.
All the 25-year-old backstop has done since then is hit .200/.300/.571, good for a 124 wRC+, play sound defense and help manage the pitching staff with seeming ease.
It’s only been 40 plate appearances, but there have been signs that undoubtedly have the Brewers reevaluating what their future plans are for Nottingham.
Sure, the 35 percent strikeout rate isn’t optimal, but that’s something that’s been a part of Nottingham’s profile for nearly all of his professional career. The flip side of the coin is Nottingham’s 11.3 percent walk rate across his 71 MLB PA. Add in Nottingham’s 60-grade raw power that has (finally?) started translating into games (his minor league career-high for homers in a season was 13 in 2015) and you have an offensive profile that will play for a catcher. Plus, Nottingham entered Sunday with a .176 BABIP, which can really only go in one direction even as the isolated power inevitably declines.
That’s not the whole picture with Nottingham, who has turned himself into a plus receiver behind the plate. According to Statcast, of 68 pitchers with at least 250 pitches received in the “shadow zone”, which is just a fancy way of saying “around the edges of the plate,” Nottingham is 12th in converting them into strikes. (Notably, Omar Narvaez is first in all of baseball and Pina is 10th; the Brewers are an excellent team at coaching pitch framing.)
There isn’t quite a way to quantify this, which can go against my #brand in this here newsletter—sometimes I need to just accept that’s okay—but Nottingham has also seemed to manage the Milwaukee pitching staff well. His game-calling has been solid and he has worked well with practically the entire group of arms, most notably Corbin Burnes, whom he caught extensively in the minors. The bat has undeniably been a plus, but the Brewers wouldn’t be throwing him out there at catcher for the majority of games in the hunt for a playoff spot if they weren’t comfortable with his abilities behind the dish.
Who knows what Nottingham’s performance means going forward. Add in Narvaez and Pina, and the Brewers have three controllable backstops going into the off-season. Narvaez has certainly been the most underwhelming in 2020, but the Brewers did make a move to acquire him last winter and it’s hard to see them giving up on him after one disappointing campaign. Manny Pina is arbitration-eligible but will be a free agent after next year.
What is certain is that Nottingham has given the Brewers options going forward and that’s rarely a bad thing.
What we learned from Minnesota’s trip to Chicago
~Jake
In any other year, this road trip to Chicago would have felt like a full-blown playoff experience as the Twins try to jostle for playoff positioning against two of baseball’s best teams. Without the fans in the stands and, probably more importantly, with expanded playoffs, the energy wasn’t exactly the same. The Twins already locked up a playoff spot, doing so with an 8-3 win over the Cubs on Saturday.
Nevertheless, the trip was still an important one. With the regular season winding down, this was Minnesota’s best chance to unseat the White Sox from the top spot in the division (and No. 2 seed in the American League, just half a game back from top-seeded Tampa Bay). That, uh, didn’t happen. Spoiler alert, I guess?
The Twins dropped three of four games to the White Sox and took two of three from the Cubs, highlighted by a tidy 4-0 win Sunday night. But what did we learn from these two series? Anything?
Let’s do my favorite thing and make a lot out of a few random games in September, shall we?
The White Sox bullpen is no joke
We’ve talked a lot about the Twins top-notch bullpen in recent weeks, but this White Sox bullpen is menacing. It doesn’t have the big names that the Yankees do or a slew of former closers like the Twins. They just have a lot of seemingly random guys with nasty stuff and, at least so far, great results.
According to FanGraphs, the White Sox have accumulated the sixth-most WAR from their relievers this year (2.8), just behind the Brewers and Dodgers (2.9) and the Twins (3.0, ranked third). While the White Sox aren’t full of strikeout machines like the Brewers, Chicago has been effective at limiting run scoring, which is definitely the point of this whole thing.
Alex Colome, Evan Marshall and Codi Heuer have been the most eye-opening. Colome is the team’s closer, and he’s an unconventional one at that. He strikes out just 6.64 batters per nine, but isn’t a full-blown ground ball pitcher either. He forces a lot of fly outs and, luckily for him, he has yet to let one leave the ballpark. That’s a huge reason for his super 0.89 ERA to this point.
The 31-year-old Colome is a known entity, having played in Tampa (traded with old friend Denard Span to Seattle) and Seattle (traded to Chicago for newish friend Omar Narvaez).
Heuer and Marshall are far less familiar, though.
Heuer, a 24-year-old rookie, is what you’d expect from a modern live arm. He throws in the high 90s, pairs it with a wicked slider and, for good measure, has a little hitch in his delivery that must be brutal for hitters’ timing. He’s a bad time for opposing hitters, especially Jorge Polanco.
Marshall, meanwhile, has bounced around Arizona, Seattle and Cleveland before making a home in Chicago, where the stocky righty throws everything off the table. He changed his pitch mix quite drastically this year, almost entirely ditching a mediocre sinker for an excellent changeup. He pairs that with an equally good slider and throws those two pitches 71% of the time. Boy, is it working, too. Despite lacking velocity, Marshall strikes out 12.05 batters per nine and has a 2.49 ERA/2.08 FIP. He’s gone from journeyman to reliable late-inning arm in a snap.
The White Sox also roll out Matt Foster, another impressive rookie who is 5-0, strikes out 10.50 every nine and has a teeny tiny 1.88 ERA. Plus: a truly confusing resurgence from Ross Detwiler, who somehow has a 1.47 ERA out of the bullpen; a jacked Jimmy Cordero, who rolls his sleeves up to show off his biceps; a guy named Aaron Bummer who is anything but; and old friend Gio Gonzalez.
Oh, and for fun, they called up Garrett Crochet, a guy they drafted just a few months ago and does this:
This is a total lockdown-level bullpen.
Actually, everything is OK with the Twins
There was a little while during the White Sox series where Pessimistic Jake showed up. He doesn’t come around often—he’s generally a mood killer in the Schultz household—but at some point in the series opener against the Sox, a 3-1 defeat, he showed up.
He groused about 15 men left on base (11 by Nelson Cruz!). Pessimistic Jake was ready to write an “Are we seeing Nelson Cruz age before our very eyes?” piece. Pessimistic Jake nearly took control of my entire being when Byron Buxton hit that ball to the wall for an inside-the-park home run only for Eloy Jimenez and the stupid MLB umpires to call it a ground-rule double because the ball was lodged under the fence.
Things didn’t get better when the Twins lost the next night, too, this time 6-2, in a game that didn’t feel even as close as the one before. It felt like the White Sox were simply better.
The Twins are just fine, though. Of course, it helped that the Twins won game three of the series, and came within one swing of winning the series finale. A few days removed from the series, we can see the positives: Chicago outscored the Twins just 14-11 as Minnesota lost two of the games by just three runs—could have been two runs if Buxton’s initial inside the parker counted.
And speaking of Buxton, the man is on fire. He homered four times in the series, once inside the park, and put together a 9-for-24 performance during the Chicago trip. He still refuses to walk, but he has an absurd .602 slugging percentage now, good for 15th in all of baseball among players with 100 or more plate appearances. Deciding not to walk isn’t smart, but it sure is fun.
All considered, the pitching staff largely pitched well, too, Randy Dobnak and Taylor Rogers excluded.
This weekend’s series win against the NL Central-leading Cubs proved to be a great push in the right direction as the season winds down, too. After getting completely shut down by Kyle Hendricks in the opener, the Twins roughed up newly-minted no-hitter-thrower Alec Mills in an 8-1 win and Jose Berrios outdueled NL Cy Young contender Yu Darvish Sunday night Insert Corbin Burnes wry smile here]. Those are big wins for a team looking to contend in the playoffs.
The series with the White Sox could have gone much better, no doubt. The Twins could be sitting atop the division and even atop the league, potentially. The takeaway, though, is the Twins stuck with the White Sox in each game. This isn’t about searching for a moral victory; the Twins and White Sox simply appeared to be on the same elite level.
Oh, sweet Jesus, not them
Yeah, so, I know we just spent all that time talking about how the Twins are just fine, no reason to panic, but, um, I lied. There’s some reason to panic.
If the season ended today, the Twins would have the No. 4 seed, setting them up for a first-round battle with the No. 5 seed, the New York Yankees.
In a devastating sort of way, it’s kinda comforting. This blasted year has thrown our world upside down in so many ways. It’s just been a terrible year. One thing that hasn’t changed, though, is a Twins-Yankees playoff series, and there’s something oddly fitting about that.
OK, that was as optimistic as I can possibly get.
This is a real kick-in-the-shorts type of series. The Twins are, quite possibly the second or third best team in the AL (sorry, Oakland) and may have to face their—nay, the world’s—eternal nemesis who surely will get totally healthy by the time these stupid playoffs start. It’s not what you want.
The bright side is the season isn’t over yet. The Twins are set to round out their season with three games against Detroit (22-30 this year) and another three against Cincinnati ((27-27 this year (Brewers fan note: please win)). The White Sox, meanwhile, have a four-game set with Cleveland, who lurks in Wild Card territory, and the aforementioned Cubs. Given the choice, you’d certainly take the Twins’ remaining schedule. With just two games separating the White Sox and Twins, it could play a factor.
Or, you know, the Twins could lose out. Maybe then they wouldn’t have to play the Yankees. Just please God, not the Yankees.
Guys, Corbin Burnes (again)
~Curt
Look, I know there has been no shortage of Corbin Burnes discussion in this newsletter, but the thing is that he’s just been so good and important for the Brewers and I can’t quite contain not talk about this breakout any chance I get. In the words of Demi Lovato: baby I’m sorry, I’m not sorry.
We’ve already delved into the why behind Burnes’ remarkable season. Here’s a hard and fast look at the what. Put Corbin Burnes on your Cy Young ballots.
Entering Sunday’s games, Burnes leads the National League in ERA (1.77), FIP (1.80), K% (37.6%), K/9 (13.34), H/9 (4.9) and pitcher fWAR (2.6).
He is 2nd in ERA+ (258), third in strikeouts (83) and K-BB% (27.6%) and sixth in WHIP (0.946).
Burnes has struck out 40.2 percent of hitters with runners on base, most among National League starters.
Burnes has a 1.26 ERA in eight outings as a starter, the best mark in baseball (min. 35 innings).
Burnes has a 0.38 ERA in September.
Only one player, Jake Arrieta in 2015, has had a sub-0.40 ERA in September/October since 1999.
Burnes has a 37.6% K%. That is the fourth-best mark in baseball history among pitchers who qualified for the ERA title. (Insert short-season caveat here.)
Burnes’ current ERA+ is ninth-best all-time.
Game Score is a metric that gives a single number to grade a starting pitching performance. A pitcher starts the game at 50 and gains or loses points based on things like outs recorded, strikeouts, walks and hits.
Burnes is one of only two pitchers to have made at least five starts this season without a game score below 50.
Burnes has gone five consecutive games striking out at least seven while allowing one or fewer runs. He becomes the 19th pitcher in MLB history to achieve such a feat.
Add in another qualifier of “giving up five or fewer hits” to the above search and Burnes is just one of three players to have had five consecutive such outings.
Burnes is tied for the franchise record of consecutive starts allowing one or fewer runs (five).
Burnes has allowed one run and has struck out 47 hitters in his last five starts. Only five players have achieved those numbers over any five-game stretch in baseball history.
Burnes has had eight outings of at least five strikeouts and one or fewer runs allowed. He’s one such outing away from tying the major league record in a team’s first 60 games of the season. Justin Verlander is the only pitcher to have had nine such outings since 1971.